Friday, February 27, 2004
Other things...
The web is full of junk. Innumerable blogs written by politico-freaks and news junkies. Discredited crap like Drudge. Everything from soup to nuts. After reading a wide array of the mainstream's redundant punditry on last night's Not-at-all Fierce Foursome debate, I need to step back and look at some other things. After all, most of this Primary Race hooey is not worth the electronic dead tree it gets printed on.
Bush is flat out wrong on his Gay Amendment, and the people that count votes in the Senate know he'll never get the SuperMajority (66%) that he needs. But at least he got Rosie out to get hitched.
The goalie from the Atlanta Thrashers has gone on injured reserve. Why am I listing my first-ever arcane hockey reference? Because I read that he hurt himself by slipping on the ice outside his hotel. I'll bet his house is pretty "thrashed" this morning after suffering that indignity.
Saw "The Passion of the Christ" yesterday. It's a bloody mess. Yes, it's filled with anti-Semitism. Yes, it incorrectly presents a favorable version of the Romans. No, it's not Art. It's grotesque. I can stomach the most gut-churning stretched-reality in films, but this is downright fraudulent. They kicked the crap out of Mel's Jesus for hours with some pretty heinous devices. Any person would die almost immediately after what Mel's Jesus begins with. And then it goes on for over an hour. Call it "The Whoopin' of the Christ" and you're more on the mark. I can't help but imagine busloads of church-goin-folk riding back home together in shocked silence after sitting through this travesty presented under the guise of Faith and Christian lore. Mel's Jesus looks the part. But what is done to make him look that way is appalling. Mel Gibson is assuredly insane.
The web is full of junk. Innumerable blogs written by politico-freaks and news junkies. Discredited crap like Drudge. Everything from soup to nuts. After reading a wide array of the mainstream's redundant punditry on last night's Not-at-all Fierce Foursome debate, I need to step back and look at some other things. After all, most of this Primary Race hooey is not worth the electronic dead tree it gets printed on.
Bush is flat out wrong on his Gay Amendment, and the people that count votes in the Senate know he'll never get the SuperMajority (66%) that he needs. But at least he got Rosie out to get hitched.
The goalie from the Atlanta Thrashers has gone on injured reserve. Why am I listing my first-ever arcane hockey reference? Because I read that he hurt himself by slipping on the ice outside his hotel. I'll bet his house is pretty "thrashed" this morning after suffering that indignity.
Saw "The Passion of the Christ" yesterday. It's a bloody mess. Yes, it's filled with anti-Semitism. Yes, it incorrectly presents a favorable version of the Romans. No, it's not Art. It's grotesque. I can stomach the most gut-churning stretched-reality in films, but this is downright fraudulent. They kicked the crap out of Mel's Jesus for hours with some pretty heinous devices. Any person would die almost immediately after what Mel's Jesus begins with. And then it goes on for over an hour. Call it "The Whoopin' of the Christ" and you're more on the mark. I can't help but imagine busloads of church-goin-folk riding back home together in shocked silence after sitting through this travesty presented under the guise of Faith and Christian lore. Mel's Jesus looks the part. But what is done to make him look that way is appalling. Mel Gibson is assuredly insane.
Thursday, February 26, 2004
Ben Arnolds and the LCRs
The Post goes harsh on Kerry this morning, reporting that he takes cash from the same CEO "Benedict Arnolds" he derides on the stump. I give it no time on the scale of stories with legs. But it does feature one insightful exchange, which pretty much sums up the take on Kerry by many:
On Monday, Kerry was asked why two of his biggest fundraisers were involved with "Benedict Arnold" companies. "If they have done that, it's not to my knowledge and I would oppose it," Kerry told a New York television station. "I think it's wrong to do [it] solely to avoid taxes."
Kerry continues, in his usual long-winded, senatorial manner:
Then he sought to clarify his position: "What I've said is not that people don't have the right to go overseas and form a company if they want to avoid the tax. I don't believe the American taxpayer ought to be giving them a benefit. That's what I object to. I don't object to global commerce. I don't object to companies deciding they want to compete somewhere else.''
Karenna Gore Schiff gets all pissy with Nader in a Wall Street Journal editorial (subscription required). The one decent line that stuck with me: "Surely there is a more effective way to recruit people on the left than by throwing elections to the right." Solid rips otherwise throughout.
It's official - Bush pissed off the Log Cabin Republicans with his Gay Amendment request. The Executive Director, Patrick Guerriero, went this far:
"The feeling is, if you want a cultural war, you'll get it," he said Wednesday in an interview. "We don't want history to record that we stood silent when our president and our party tried to write discrimination into the U.S. Constitution."
It's early, but I sincerely believe Bush's pre-emptive strike on this issue was ill-timed. There are too many balls in play (MA, San Fran, hints from Chicago) in Dem stronghold states with Primaries to come, and photo ops to stage. And big debate possibilities on this issue tonight for the FearsomeFoursome. Edwards needs a home run. Kerry has to be aggressive and smarter than recent efforts. Kucinich has nothing to lose. Sharpton's got money worries and the FEC on his tail, but he bucks hard while he runs. Anything might happen.
The Post goes harsh on Kerry this morning, reporting that he takes cash from the same CEO "Benedict Arnolds" he derides on the stump. I give it no time on the scale of stories with legs. But it does feature one insightful exchange, which pretty much sums up the take on Kerry by many:
On Monday, Kerry was asked why two of his biggest fundraisers were involved with "Benedict Arnold" companies. "If they have done that, it's not to my knowledge and I would oppose it," Kerry told a New York television station. "I think it's wrong to do [it] solely to avoid taxes."
Kerry continues, in his usual long-winded, senatorial manner:
Then he sought to clarify his position: "What I've said is not that people don't have the right to go overseas and form a company if they want to avoid the tax. I don't believe the American taxpayer ought to be giving them a benefit. That's what I object to. I don't object to global commerce. I don't object to companies deciding they want to compete somewhere else.''
Karenna Gore Schiff gets all pissy with Nader in a Wall Street Journal editorial (subscription required). The one decent line that stuck with me: "Surely there is a more effective way to recruit people on the left than by throwing elections to the right." Solid rips otherwise throughout.
It's official - Bush pissed off the Log Cabin Republicans with his Gay Amendment request. The Executive Director, Patrick Guerriero, went this far:
"The feeling is, if you want a cultural war, you'll get it," he said Wednesday in an interview. "We don't want history to record that we stood silent when our president and our party tried to write discrimination into the U.S. Constitution."
It's early, but I sincerely believe Bush's pre-emptive strike on this issue was ill-timed. There are too many balls in play (MA, San Fran, hints from Chicago) in Dem stronghold states with Primaries to come, and photo ops to stage. And big debate possibilities on this issue tonight for the FearsomeFoursome. Edwards needs a home run. Kerry has to be aggressive and smarter than recent efforts. Kucinich has nothing to lose. Sharpton's got money worries and the FEC on his tail, but he bucks hard while he runs. Anything might happen.
Wednesday, February 25, 2004
Bush Goes Anti-Gay
One of the few truly analytical paragraphs in a typically well-written Dana Milbank piece in today's Post about Bush's anti-gay marriage announcement:
"(A)t a fundraiser Monday night, Bush vowed to "extend the frontiers of liberty." But 15 hours later, he threw his support behind an amendment that would be only the second in U.S. history other than Prohibition to curtail public freedoms. In the 2000 campaign, Bush himself opposed federal intervention on the subject, saying in a Feb. 15 interview with CNN's Larry King that states "can do what they want to do" on gay marriage. Vice President Cheney, similarly, said in 2000, "I don't think there should necessarily be a federal policy in this area.""
Regardless, Bush is now on-board to support his first Constitutional Amendment. I suppose a misreading of Prohibition's success has the Bushies emboldened that they can shepard this slime fest through the Congress. I'm not surprised since the Election is dominating everyone's thinking and Bush needs his conservative base to get ready for the months of ugliness ahead. But this unnecessarily moral battle needs to be fought as much as we needed to go to Iraq. And we all know how well that went.
Kucinich vaulted to a second place finish in Hawaii with a few days of retail politickin' - 26%, behind Kerry at 50%. Otherwise, Kerry cleans up in Utah and Idaho. The results are impressive for Kerry. Edwards is dead in the water. I doubt that he'll win a single state on Super Tuesday, with the only competitive chance I see being in Georgia. Ohio will say a ton about how much longer this debate will go on. Not much longer, by my estimate.
One of the few truly analytical paragraphs in a typically well-written Dana Milbank piece in today's Post about Bush's anti-gay marriage announcement:
"(A)t a fundraiser Monday night, Bush vowed to "extend the frontiers of liberty." But 15 hours later, he threw his support behind an amendment that would be only the second in U.S. history other than Prohibition to curtail public freedoms. In the 2000 campaign, Bush himself opposed federal intervention on the subject, saying in a Feb. 15 interview with CNN's Larry King that states "can do what they want to do" on gay marriage. Vice President Cheney, similarly, said in 2000, "I don't think there should necessarily be a federal policy in this area.""
Regardless, Bush is now on-board to support his first Constitutional Amendment. I suppose a misreading of Prohibition's success has the Bushies emboldened that they can shepard this slime fest through the Congress. I'm not surprised since the Election is dominating everyone's thinking and Bush needs his conservative base to get ready for the months of ugliness ahead. But this unnecessarily moral battle needs to be fought as much as we needed to go to Iraq. And we all know how well that went.
Kucinich vaulted to a second place finish in Hawaii with a few days of retail politickin' - 26%, behind Kerry at 50%. Otherwise, Kerry cleans up in Utah and Idaho. The results are impressive for Kerry. Edwards is dead in the water. I doubt that he'll win a single state on Super Tuesday, with the only competitive chance I see being in Georgia. Ohio will say a ton about how much longer this debate will go on. Not much longer, by my estimate.
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
The Escalation Begins
Bush kicked off his campaign last night with a speech at a fundraiser. How do we know it was the kick off? Because the White House leaked that premise over and over again throughout the weekend. In the end, no one was surprised by the nature of the speech. Personally, I'm more intrigued by the parallel drawn by E. J. Dionne's column in today's Post that postulates how Bush will be attacking Kerry through surrogates just as McCain was savaged in 2000 starting in South Carolina. No matter how you shake it, there's no denying that the general election feel of open combat is starting earlier this year than in any Presidential election in our nation's history.
Nader, Nader, Nader - where should I begin. First of all, his legacy is shot. And the damage done by the 2000 race to the Greens has further marginalized their hopes for Third Party ascendancy. So this year's run appears oddly quixotic - Nader can't hope to win and his quest is downright delusional. Still, ya gotta give the guy some credit for being able to shake the foundation of the Dems. Or rather, that's one reason to question the true strength of what lies beneath any attachment to Kerry or Edwards.
Once again, Edwards has failed to get any bump out of his successful second-place finish in a big contest. With Super Tuesday just one week away, there stands very little chance that he'll find a toehold. The Dems divvy up their delegates by percentages unlike the Republicans - that means Edwards is estimated to need 60% of the remaining votes to beat Kerry in pledged delegates. That won't happen. But it will be interesting to see just how long Edwards will stay in the battle, not to mention how much longer they'll let Kucinich and Sharpton on the stage. After Super Tuesday, March 9th is the last real biggie with Florida and Texas included. If Kerry doesn't have a clear glide path by the 10th, I will eat a serious plateful of crow.
One more inglorious post-mortem on the Dean campaign. It's not a surprise, but the campaign finishes up with around $500K in debt on the books. With most of the staff gone, any fundraising appeals will be especially pathetic. The blog keeps on churning out the outrage and the dream is not dead entirely. But it should be. Wasting through over $50M for about 100 pledged delegates is an absolute disgrace. And everyone knows it.
Bush kicked off his campaign last night with a speech at a fundraiser. How do we know it was the kick off? Because the White House leaked that premise over and over again throughout the weekend. In the end, no one was surprised by the nature of the speech. Personally, I'm more intrigued by the parallel drawn by E. J. Dionne's column in today's Post that postulates how Bush will be attacking Kerry through surrogates just as McCain was savaged in 2000 starting in South Carolina. No matter how you shake it, there's no denying that the general election feel of open combat is starting earlier this year than in any Presidential election in our nation's history.
Nader, Nader, Nader - where should I begin. First of all, his legacy is shot. And the damage done by the 2000 race to the Greens has further marginalized their hopes for Third Party ascendancy. So this year's run appears oddly quixotic - Nader can't hope to win and his quest is downright delusional. Still, ya gotta give the guy some credit for being able to shake the foundation of the Dems. Or rather, that's one reason to question the true strength of what lies beneath any attachment to Kerry or Edwards.
Once again, Edwards has failed to get any bump out of his successful second-place finish in a big contest. With Super Tuesday just one week away, there stands very little chance that he'll find a toehold. The Dems divvy up their delegates by percentages unlike the Republicans - that means Edwards is estimated to need 60% of the remaining votes to beat Kerry in pledged delegates. That won't happen. But it will be interesting to see just how long Edwards will stay in the battle, not to mention how much longer they'll let Kucinich and Sharpton on the stage. After Super Tuesday, March 9th is the last real biggie with Florida and Texas included. If Kerry doesn't have a clear glide path by the 10th, I will eat a serious plateful of crow.
One more inglorious post-mortem on the Dean campaign. It's not a surprise, but the campaign finishes up with around $500K in debt on the books. With most of the staff gone, any fundraising appeals will be especially pathetic. The blog keeps on churning out the outrage and the dream is not dead entirely. But it should be. Wasting through over $50M for about 100 pledged delegates is an absolute disgrace. And everyone knows it.
Friday, February 20, 2004
Mornings Change, Slowly
For months and months now, I've read a bundle of newspapers every morning - usually with a deadline of 6am. I'd pick stories for the Campaign's morning press brief, and with a few other guys put together a 50-pageish bundle that followed the Gov and all others round the country. Getting through that much electronic deadtree makes you feel like you've seen and read all that's going on before anyone's had their coffee. Yesterday was the last morning for that service. Old habits die hard, though. I'll be clipping more here in the future as an outlet. Information exists to be shared on a regular basis. These are, most certainly, interesting days for the Nation.
More Newsy Errata
1. The "Dean as dot com" stories continue - The Post and E.J. Dionne are today's offerings.
2. The Bushies get bizzy - Their ad strategy to cast Kerry as a hypocrite is a dangerous one. Ads can boomerang, big time.
3. After WAAAAY too long, Skilling looks scared - Enron will become a campaign issue unless Ken Lay also gets indicted for the endless crap they pulled. And they'll both see jail time, harsher than most would have expected.
For months and months now, I've read a bundle of newspapers every morning - usually with a deadline of 6am. I'd pick stories for the Campaign's morning press brief, and with a few other guys put together a 50-pageish bundle that followed the Gov and all others round the country. Getting through that much electronic deadtree makes you feel like you've seen and read all that's going on before anyone's had their coffee. Yesterday was the last morning for that service. Old habits die hard, though. I'll be clipping more here in the future as an outlet. Information exists to be shared on a regular basis. These are, most certainly, interesting days for the Nation.
More Newsy Errata
1. The "Dean as dot com" stories continue - The Post and E.J. Dionne are today's offerings.
2. The Bushies get bizzy - Their ad strategy to cast Kerry as a hypocrite is a dangerous one. Ads can boomerang, big time.
3. After WAAAAY too long, Skilling looks scared - Enron will become a campaign issue unless Ken Lay also gets indicted for the endless crap they pulled. And they'll both see jail time, harsher than most would have expected.
Thursday, February 19, 2004
Post Pullout Assessments
The world for a Campaign the day after their candidate pulls out is one of goofing and hugging and generally looking forward. That's surely the case for everyone at Dean for America today. A lunch with Ho-Ho turns into a snowball fight. People packing up and getting ready to move out, largely over the weekend. And the amorphous nature of claiming that a new PAC will remain in place of the once frontrunner's operation has most folks pondering just where they may fit in. I'll stick around because I still believe in the general mission that brought me to Dean in the first place. Not everyone's got the luxury of doing so. U-Haul's getting lots of bizness doing a drive-away from the Burshizzle to be sure.
Howie's announcement yesterday hit all the right chords. A nice full room, loads of free and uncritical media, tearful staff, a hint of short-lived nostalgia, and a solitary crazy Green Party protester out front carrying a sign saying "The Doctor is Sick." There have been some unkind post-mortems today that have tried to write a quick history on this alleged "movement" before the Candidate as Corpse is cooled - the USA Today assessment is the harshest but possibly the most accurate. All the grander assessments will take a bit longer.
The world for a Campaign the day after their candidate pulls out is one of goofing and hugging and generally looking forward. That's surely the case for everyone at Dean for America today. A lunch with Ho-Ho turns into a snowball fight. People packing up and getting ready to move out, largely over the weekend. And the amorphous nature of claiming that a new PAC will remain in place of the once frontrunner's operation has most folks pondering just where they may fit in. I'll stick around because I still believe in the general mission that brought me to Dean in the first place. Not everyone's got the luxury of doing so. U-Haul's getting lots of bizness doing a drive-away from the Burshizzle to be sure.
Howie's announcement yesterday hit all the right chords. A nice full room, loads of free and uncritical media, tearful staff, a hint of short-lived nostalgia, and a solitary crazy Green Party protester out front carrying a sign saying "The Doctor is Sick." There have been some unkind post-mortems today that have tried to write a quick history on this alleged "movement" before the Candidate as Corpse is cooled - the USA Today assessment is the harshest but possibly the most accurate. All the grander assessments will take a bit longer.
Wednesday, February 18, 2004
A Day Dean Dreaded Dearly
In little more than an hour, Dean's going to officially announce his departure from the race for the Dem nomination at a press conference/rally in Burlington, just a mere mile from my condo. There's little suspense in that rally's purpose, yet I expect that all the major media functionaries will be there. Expect much more in the way of analysis from yours truly once I get back from that event, or the expected happy hour hugfests that will follow.
The spin on last night's results in Wisconsin has been put into dizzying rotation - many claim that Edwards' showing was akin to a victory. Sure, it looked awfully close at 9:53pm EST (by my watch) when all the cable news channels projected Kerry's victory when only 23% of the vote was in and Kerry was actually down in the vote count by a few hundred with about 58,000 votes for both himself and Edwards tallied. But the nature of modern campaign physics is all in the exit polling, where Kerry was mopping up with Democrat voters in this open primary. In the end, the tallies came out as follows:
Kerry - 40%
Edwards - 34%
Dean - 18%
Compared to my predictions from yesterday, I'd overestimated Kerry by 5 points, shorted Dean by 5, and shorted Edwards by 1, hitting the trifecta nonetheless on my bet. Not much elegance in my prediction, but at least I was a heckuva lot closer than most of the pundits that get paid untold fortunes for claiming their insight allows them to better toss the darts we all can check out from the bar, so to speak.
What comes from all this handicapping? Well, we're back to where we were one year ago, with the smart money on Kerry and Edwards in a dueling strategies game leading up to Super Tuesday on March 2nd. Few if any postulations in the current timeframe will give you a great forecast for Edwards - running in the 10 States in two weeks will be a big disadvantage for him since few "open Primary" possibilities like that seen in Wisconsin coupled with the time to do the baby-kissing/hand-shaking style of personal contact present themselves from here on out. And anyone that thinks Dean is gonna endorse is once again smoking Nader's stash. So unless Kerry's craps in his pants on stage while grabbing the breast of a 16-year-old intern, I'm ready to predict he's on his way to the nomination. He's got 27% of the delegates he needs right now. Conversely, Dean garnered a grand total of 200 delegates, over half of which were "superdelegates" or unrelated to the Primaries/Caucuses played out thus far. I don't have time to tally how much each pledged delegate cost the Campaign. Rest assured, it's a historic high.
Regardless, time to see what sort of turnout the rally gets. More later, to be sure.
In little more than an hour, Dean's going to officially announce his departure from the race for the Dem nomination at a press conference/rally in Burlington, just a mere mile from my condo. There's little suspense in that rally's purpose, yet I expect that all the major media functionaries will be there. Expect much more in the way of analysis from yours truly once I get back from that event, or the expected happy hour hugfests that will follow.
The spin on last night's results in Wisconsin has been put into dizzying rotation - many claim that Edwards' showing was akin to a victory. Sure, it looked awfully close at 9:53pm EST (by my watch) when all the cable news channels projected Kerry's victory when only 23% of the vote was in and Kerry was actually down in the vote count by a few hundred with about 58,000 votes for both himself and Edwards tallied. But the nature of modern campaign physics is all in the exit polling, where Kerry was mopping up with Democrat voters in this open primary. In the end, the tallies came out as follows:
Kerry - 40%
Edwards - 34%
Dean - 18%
Compared to my predictions from yesterday, I'd overestimated Kerry by 5 points, shorted Dean by 5, and shorted Edwards by 1, hitting the trifecta nonetheless on my bet. Not much elegance in my prediction, but at least I was a heckuva lot closer than most of the pundits that get paid untold fortunes for claiming their insight allows them to better toss the darts we all can check out from the bar, so to speak.
What comes from all this handicapping? Well, we're back to where we were one year ago, with the smart money on Kerry and Edwards in a dueling strategies game leading up to Super Tuesday on March 2nd. Few if any postulations in the current timeframe will give you a great forecast for Edwards - running in the 10 States in two weeks will be a big disadvantage for him since few "open Primary" possibilities like that seen in Wisconsin coupled with the time to do the baby-kissing/hand-shaking style of personal contact present themselves from here on out. And anyone that thinks Dean is gonna endorse is once again smoking Nader's stash. So unless Kerry's craps in his pants on stage while grabbing the breast of a 16-year-old intern, I'm ready to predict he's on his way to the nomination. He's got 27% of the delegates he needs right now. Conversely, Dean garnered a grand total of 200 delegates, over half of which were "superdelegates" or unrelated to the Primaries/Caucuses played out thus far. I don't have time to tally how much each pledged delegate cost the Campaign. Rest assured, it's a historic high.
Regardless, time to see what sort of turnout the rally gets. More later, to be sure.
Tuesday, February 17, 2004
Thoughts On Wisconsin
It's been a long time since the Wisconsin Primary really mattered. Every news story filed in the last few weeks follows this line of thinking and usually harkens back to 1960, when JFK beat HHH in a surprise loss for "Wisconsin's Third Senator." I remember hearing stories in high school about how JFK passed through a tiny town (Westboro) that was a part of the district. Even with Dean being there for a few weeks and the others focusing on the state almost entirely for the past week, the candidates never really left the larger towns usually anchored by a University of Wisconsin extension and media outlets. But it still is awfully validating to consider that the world's attention is focused on Wisconsin voters today. Just to hear the BBC reporting from the state on the radio early this morning warmed my home-State-biased heart. Too bad that as soon as the day's over, everyone will go back to characterizing the State as being full of foam-cheese-wearing, snowmobile-racing-loving fans drunkenly living in hell's icebox. Or something to that effect.
Before things get rolling today, I want to take a real chance and publish my predictions. The latest Zogby numbers from yesterday showed it being much closer than what I'm thinking will be the case. Nevertheless...
Kerry - 45%
Edwards - 33%
Dean - 13%
I'm giving Edwards a great big bump from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel endorsement. And I'm maybe being unduly harsh toward Dean. Given the terrible news cycle for him yesterday, I have to assume it will hurt him. But with the huge turnout expected, all predictions are merely blind throws at the board. We'll see tonight just how far off the mark I am.
It's been a long time since the Wisconsin Primary really mattered. Every news story filed in the last few weeks follows this line of thinking and usually harkens back to 1960, when JFK beat HHH in a surprise loss for "Wisconsin's Third Senator." I remember hearing stories in high school about how JFK passed through a tiny town (Westboro) that was a part of the district. Even with Dean being there for a few weeks and the others focusing on the state almost entirely for the past week, the candidates never really left the larger towns usually anchored by a University of Wisconsin extension and media outlets. But it still is awfully validating to consider that the world's attention is focused on Wisconsin voters today. Just to hear the BBC reporting from the state on the radio early this morning warmed my home-State-biased heart. Too bad that as soon as the day's over, everyone will go back to characterizing the State as being full of foam-cheese-wearing, snowmobile-racing-loving fans drunkenly living in hell's icebox. Or something to that effect.
Before things get rolling today, I want to take a real chance and publish my predictions. The latest Zogby numbers from yesterday showed it being much closer than what I'm thinking will be the case. Nevertheless...
Kerry - 45%
Edwards - 33%
Dean - 13%
I'm giving Edwards a great big bump from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel endorsement. And I'm maybe being unduly harsh toward Dean. Given the terrible news cycle for him yesterday, I have to assume it will hurt him. But with the huge turnout expected, all predictions are merely blind throws at the board. We'll see tonight just how far off the mark I am.
Monday, February 16, 2004
Today's Political Leads Updated
It didn't take long, although the details haven't been released. Grossman's out. The pool reporters are having a field day with the gallows humor on this latest distraction.
And Kerry's alleged mystery woman has come forward. Extensive follow-up reporting on this smear should be initiated, I would hope. Drudge now backtracks by claiming that she dated Kerry's finance chief, and in the process libels her from here to Nairobi. What a sleaze. Nothing yet from the British rags that outted her.
It didn't take long, although the details haven't been released. Grossman's out. The pool reporters are having a field day with the gallows humor on this latest distraction.
And Kerry's alleged mystery woman has come forward. Extensive follow-up reporting on this smear should be initiated, I would hope. Drudge now backtracks by claiming that she dated Kerry's finance chief, and in the process libels her from here to Nairobi. What a sleaze. Nothing yet from the British rags that outted her.
Grossing Out?
The biggest gripe for the Deaniacs this morning comes in the form of ominous comments from the Campaign's Chairman, Steve Grossman. He spoke openly to Jodi Wilgoren, the NYTimes embedded reporter, and without much in the way of nuance indicated that he'll support Kerry if Dean loses in Wisconsin on Tuesday (LINK). It's no secret that many people are leaving the Campaign and everyone's reading the poll numbers that show Kerry with a comfortable lead. But to have your top man outline a departure less than 48 hours before a crucial contest is pretty unprecendented. If you take the time to read the Dean blog, you'll see all manner of inelegant demands that Grossman leave. In a word - ouch...
In the debate last night, Kerry did his best to sound like himself. Even-keeled, largely uninspiring, but well-worded and very senatorial. Edwards, as usual, came out looking the best. And with a few subtle jibes at Kerry, he made the only news to come from the event (LINK). My only reaction to the evening is to marvel at just how good all the candidates have become at speaking in such a forum (even Kerry, no matter my above comments). For once in PoliticalHorserace History, having a full field has helped all comers willing to stick it out.
The biggest gripe for the Deaniacs this morning comes in the form of ominous comments from the Campaign's Chairman, Steve Grossman. He spoke openly to Jodi Wilgoren, the NYTimes embedded reporter, and without much in the way of nuance indicated that he'll support Kerry if Dean loses in Wisconsin on Tuesday (LINK). It's no secret that many people are leaving the Campaign and everyone's reading the poll numbers that show Kerry with a comfortable lead. But to have your top man outline a departure less than 48 hours before a crucial contest is pretty unprecendented. If you take the time to read the Dean blog, you'll see all manner of inelegant demands that Grossman leave. In a word - ouch...
In the debate last night, Kerry did his best to sound like himself. Even-keeled, largely uninspiring, but well-worded and very senatorial. Edwards, as usual, came out looking the best. And with a few subtle jibes at Kerry, he made the only news to come from the event (LINK). My only reaction to the evening is to marvel at just how good all the candidates have become at speaking in such a forum (even Kerry, no matter my above comments). For once in PoliticalHorserace History, having a full field has helped all comers willing to stick it out.
Saturday, February 14, 2004
Burnin' the Trash
Although they seem to stretch the facts regularly, they get the "gets" that all the world's sleaziest publications want. They being the Brits (LINK). I'm possibly only making this worse by linking to it, but smears are best derailed with full disclosure earlier rather than later. Kerry's "alleged" affair is already feeling like a dead story. Especially when the NYTimes is reporting that Bush has other attack plans that will commence in the next few weeks (LINK). I would expect nothing less. Newt Gingrich has already carted out what I expect will be the Willie Horton line of this campaign - calling Kerry a "Jane Fonda antiwar liberal." Catchy.
The stories that are being written as post-mortems of Dean's waning days in Wisconsin are depressingly accurate, I must admit (LINK). Everyone expects that Kerry will win in a walk, and Edwards' numbers look to be rising somewhat. Next week will be a pivotal one for Dean's campaign. Expect quite a few surprises, given last month's head-over-heels turnaround.
Although they seem to stretch the facts regularly, they get the "gets" that all the world's sleaziest publications want. They being the Brits (LINK). I'm possibly only making this worse by linking to it, but smears are best derailed with full disclosure earlier rather than later. Kerry's "alleged" affair is already feeling like a dead story. Especially when the NYTimes is reporting that Bush has other attack plans that will commence in the next few weeks (LINK). I would expect nothing less. Newt Gingrich has already carted out what I expect will be the Willie Horton line of this campaign - calling Kerry a "Jane Fonda antiwar liberal." Catchy.
The stories that are being written as post-mortems of Dean's waning days in Wisconsin are depressingly accurate, I must admit (LINK). Everyone expects that Kerry will win in a walk, and Edwards' numbers look to be rising somewhat. Next week will be a pivotal one for Dean's campaign. Expect quite a few surprises, given last month's head-over-heels turnaround.
Friday, February 13, 2004
Leave It To Murdoch
The Kerry allegation of infidelity took on a decidedly British odor this afternoon when "The Sun" published the "intern's" name (Alex Colier) and reports on an interview with her parents (LINK). Lookout folks - this mud bog has no bottom.
The Kerry allegation of infidelity took on a decidedly British odor this afternoon when "The Sun" published the "intern's" name (Alex Colier) and reports on an interview with her parents (LINK). Lookout folks - this mud bog has no bottom.
A MUST Read
Anyone who thinks that Bush's Nat'l Guard service is a dead story or one that should be ignored NEEDS to read the following story from "The Memphis Flyer" (LINK). If this doesn't scare the White House, they're in complete denial.
Anyone who thinks that Bush's Nat'l Guard service is a dead story or one that should be ignored NEEDS to read the following story from "The Memphis Flyer" (LINK). If this doesn't scare the White House, they're in complete denial.
Thursday, February 12, 2004
Something Smelly This Way Blows...
The standard Wisconsin stories are all around this morning for Dean and Edwards, while Kerry's back in Beantown. While I hate to feed the flames of what might be a ridiculous hack job, Matt Drudge just put up what he's deemed a campaign shocker in the form of a story about alleged infidelity by Kerry (LINK). This is either a huge story or a huge smear. Neither one would surprise me much.
The White House's latest document release would be hilarious if it weren't so obviously cynical. Namely, they released a one-page dental record that they say indicates Bush visited the dentist on-base in Alabama in January '73. Two things strike me immediately about this document. First, this is used to support the fact that Bush was paid for that date - who else gets paid to go to the dentist? And second, this is 3 months after the election he worked on in Alabama yet it's the first official indication of him showing up for duty. That's one LONG post-campaign party. Regardless, there's obviously many more documents out there - I'll not be convinced that his entire military file contained some redacted payroll tracking and a single sheet from his dental chart. The more they try to put this story to bed, the more they shake it awake.
Dean's comment in Wisconsin yesterday that an election between Bush and Kerry would require choosing between "the lesser of two evils" has to have Dem leaders nationwide up in arms. Dean's started to go much more negative, as has been widely reported. But this comment went so far over the line it wasn't even in the same area code. If Kerry's personal life suddenly becomes the issue, however, Dean may have just lobbed the first grenade in a whole new battle. And not so suddenly the game gets a whole lot muddier.
The standard Wisconsin stories are all around this morning for Dean and Edwards, while Kerry's back in Beantown. While I hate to feed the flames of what might be a ridiculous hack job, Matt Drudge just put up what he's deemed a campaign shocker in the form of a story about alleged infidelity by Kerry (LINK). This is either a huge story or a huge smear. Neither one would surprise me much.
The White House's latest document release would be hilarious if it weren't so obviously cynical. Namely, they released a one-page dental record that they say indicates Bush visited the dentist on-base in Alabama in January '73. Two things strike me immediately about this document. First, this is used to support the fact that Bush was paid for that date - who else gets paid to go to the dentist? And second, this is 3 months after the election he worked on in Alabama yet it's the first official indication of him showing up for duty. That's one LONG post-campaign party. Regardless, there's obviously many more documents out there - I'll not be convinced that his entire military file contained some redacted payroll tracking and a single sheet from his dental chart. The more they try to put this story to bed, the more they shake it awake.
Dean's comment in Wisconsin yesterday that an election between Bush and Kerry would require choosing between "the lesser of two evils" has to have Dem leaders nationwide up in arms. Dean's started to go much more negative, as has been widely reported. But this comment went so far over the line it wasn't even in the same area code. If Kerry's personal life suddenly becomes the issue, however, Dean may have just lobbed the first grenade in a whole new battle. And not so suddenly the game gets a whole lot muddier.
Wednesday, February 11, 2004
Catchin' Up
Even with multiple swirling political stories worthy of much attention, I'm still floored by a bout of the flu that had me worshipping at the porcelin altar yesterday and all through the night. Too much information, I realize. But I'm starting to feel a bit better, and so I want to comment on a few events from the last few days.
1) The Bush White House defensive on his Nat'l Guard service has switched noticably to the offensive mode. Scott McClellan (the most unimpressive White House Press Secretary in modern memory) started in with charges of "gutter politics" and "trolling for trash" this morning. After yesterday's feeble defense of releasing obviously redacted payroll documents, this tactical shift was entirely predictable. And then Ralph Reed came on CNN's "Inside Politics" earlier this afternoon to attempt to blame Kerry for bringing up the issue. Let's all remember that Michael Moore got this ball off the rack once again when he called Bush a "deserter" in his endorsement of Wes Clark.
2) Dean's now repeatedly stated that he's not getting out after Wisconsin, no matter how poorly he does. For his purist supporters, this looks like backbone when actually this change is merely an unfortunate necessity resulting from allowing an unnamed Campaign worker to send out that overplayed email with Dean's name attached.
3) Clark officially pulled out this afternoon with an extremely classy concession speech delivered in Little Rock. He didn't have a choice - out of cash and out of Southern states for the next few weeks. But by complimenting Kerry, Edwards and Dean by name for the campaigns they've run, he definitely raised his falling Veepstakes odds. More impressive, though, was a segment I saw of Wes Clark being interviewed for an inane VH1 program apparently dedicated to asking the Dem candidates questions about pop culture. Clark got asked to define "metrosexual" - he nailed it better than I've seen ANYONE define that hilarious new entry into the public lexicon.
4) Kerry's performance in Virginia and Tennessee was the surest sign of his momentum these days. With WI polls showing him running 30 points up, only a train wreck will prevent him from rolling through Super Tuesday. Will Saletan did offer up an ugly undercutting article on Slate today (LINK) arguing that recent exit polls undercut his "electability" advantages. The rest of his recent press, however, still smells like a walk to the nomination.
5) Bush gave a speech on WMD proliferation this afternoon before the National Defense University. Yawn. He's obviously doing everything in his power to change the subject from his Vietnam record. I certainly don't agree that his Nat'l Guard service is an important story. But ploys such as this speech will do even less than the offensive tactics described above.
Time to make a piece of toast and nibble on some orange slices. Such is the glamorous life of a flu-survivor.
Even with multiple swirling political stories worthy of much attention, I'm still floored by a bout of the flu that had me worshipping at the porcelin altar yesterday and all through the night. Too much information, I realize. But I'm starting to feel a bit better, and so I want to comment on a few events from the last few days.
1) The Bush White House defensive on his Nat'l Guard service has switched noticably to the offensive mode. Scott McClellan (the most unimpressive White House Press Secretary in modern memory) started in with charges of "gutter politics" and "trolling for trash" this morning. After yesterday's feeble defense of releasing obviously redacted payroll documents, this tactical shift was entirely predictable. And then Ralph Reed came on CNN's "Inside Politics" earlier this afternoon to attempt to blame Kerry for bringing up the issue. Let's all remember that Michael Moore got this ball off the rack once again when he called Bush a "deserter" in his endorsement of Wes Clark.
2) Dean's now repeatedly stated that he's not getting out after Wisconsin, no matter how poorly he does. For his purist supporters, this looks like backbone when actually this change is merely an unfortunate necessity resulting from allowing an unnamed Campaign worker to send out that overplayed email with Dean's name attached.
3) Clark officially pulled out this afternoon with an extremely classy concession speech delivered in Little Rock. He didn't have a choice - out of cash and out of Southern states for the next few weeks. But by complimenting Kerry, Edwards and Dean by name for the campaigns they've run, he definitely raised his falling Veepstakes odds. More impressive, though, was a segment I saw of Wes Clark being interviewed for an inane VH1 program apparently dedicated to asking the Dem candidates questions about pop culture. Clark got asked to define "metrosexual" - he nailed it better than I've seen ANYONE define that hilarious new entry into the public lexicon.
4) Kerry's performance in Virginia and Tennessee was the surest sign of his momentum these days. With WI polls showing him running 30 points up, only a train wreck will prevent him from rolling through Super Tuesday. Will Saletan did offer up an ugly undercutting article on Slate today (LINK) arguing that recent exit polls undercut his "electability" advantages. The rest of his recent press, however, still smells like a walk to the nomination.
5) Bush gave a speech on WMD proliferation this afternoon before the National Defense University. Yawn. He's obviously doing everything in his power to change the subject from his Vietnam record. I certainly don't agree that his Nat'l Guard service is an important story. But ploys such as this speech will do even less than the offensive tactics described above.
Time to make a piece of toast and nibble on some orange slices. Such is the glamorous life of a flu-survivor.
Sunday, February 08, 2004
More Questions Than Answers...
After huge Kerry wins in MI and WA yesterday, the nation's most assuredly not focused on what happens in Maine today. But there's still some there there (to ruin Dorothy Parker's famous cliche about Oakland). Kerry will win in Maine - it borders Massachusetts and he's gotten the big endorsements from George Mitchell and the current Gov - so most people will collectively yawn through til Tuesday in Virginia and Tennessee.
Put that aside, and the real story today is the increasing scrutiny Bush is facing in conjunction with falling poll numbers. Bush did absolutely nothing to help himself on "Meet the Press" today. Sure, he kept his temper in check for the most part and didn't say anything embarrassingly wrong. Still - anyone who thinks he's the best person to defuse questions surrounding the use of loaded intellegence for the Iraqi invasion has been smoking Nader's stash. Tim Russert was measured and respectful. The line of questioning was totally expected. But Bush looked ready to blow on far too many occasions. What else could explain all of the pained smirks delivered over answers to weighty questions. The only time Bush looked sincerely serious was when he responded to the question about justifying "over 530 dead" and the later question about Democrats questioning his record in the National Guard. On the latter point, Bush did manage to open up what seems to be an even larger can of worms when he agreed that releasing records about his service might be the way to quiet this teapot's tempest. I guarantee one thing in response to that interview - many, many journalists will hammer the White House and his Campaign with requests to do just that. I've read that pay stubs may be the most sought after set of evidentiary records because they will directly reference exactly what timeframe Bush was actually in Alabama (Russert mentioned it, but I've seen it laid out better on a blog by journalist Joshua Marshall in the past). Some sources have asserted that Bush will never release those particular records. Regardless, the issues of his service and much, much more importantly how we got so deep into Iraq aren't going away. And the intensity of the debate will only get hotter as the months advance toward November.
After huge Kerry wins in MI and WA yesterday, the nation's most assuredly not focused on what happens in Maine today. But there's still some there there (to ruin Dorothy Parker's famous cliche about Oakland). Kerry will win in Maine - it borders Massachusetts and he's gotten the big endorsements from George Mitchell and the current Gov - so most people will collectively yawn through til Tuesday in Virginia and Tennessee.
Put that aside, and the real story today is the increasing scrutiny Bush is facing in conjunction with falling poll numbers. Bush did absolutely nothing to help himself on "Meet the Press" today. Sure, he kept his temper in check for the most part and didn't say anything embarrassingly wrong. Still - anyone who thinks he's the best person to defuse questions surrounding the use of loaded intellegence for the Iraqi invasion has been smoking Nader's stash. Tim Russert was measured and respectful. The line of questioning was totally expected. But Bush looked ready to blow on far too many occasions. What else could explain all of the pained smirks delivered over answers to weighty questions. The only time Bush looked sincerely serious was when he responded to the question about justifying "over 530 dead" and the later question about Democrats questioning his record in the National Guard. On the latter point, Bush did manage to open up what seems to be an even larger can of worms when he agreed that releasing records about his service might be the way to quiet this teapot's tempest. I guarantee one thing in response to that interview - many, many journalists will hammer the White House and his Campaign with requests to do just that. I've read that pay stubs may be the most sought after set of evidentiary records because they will directly reference exactly what timeframe Bush was actually in Alabama (Russert mentioned it, but I've seen it laid out better on a blog by journalist Joshua Marshall in the past). Some sources have asserted that Bush will never release those particular records. Regardless, the issues of his service and much, much more importantly how we got so deep into Iraq aren't going away. And the intensity of the debate will only get hotter as the months advance toward November.
Friday, February 06, 2004
An Email Gone Horribly Astray
Look, I've contributed countless hours to the Dean Campaign. Most of the people I met there were folks I would invite to a dinner party, even if I had to sit next to them without requiring a conversational barrier. Smart people, dedicated to the cause they almost invariably left regular lives to join. But I have to be unbridled in my criticism of what's going in HQ as of late. It's not so much that the lunatics are running the asylum. It's that no one wants to admit just which lunatics are in charge. Yesterday's "anything less (than a Wisconsin win) will put us out of this race" drove it home like a prom-date Dad with an overly protective tendency. Sorry - overwrought metaphor. Nonetheless, the point must be made, no matter how painful.
Dean's consequently disavowed himself from making that pronouncement, calling it a brilliant "ploy" that he wouldn't take credit for. I still can't get a straight answer on who's responsible. In the end, it obviously doesn't matter. A decentralized campaign without a clue about strategic approaches to accountability will have many of these episodes. But when the future of your campaign is at stake, you'd think someone with a non-delayed paycheck would have something to say about the text the media was assured to jump on like a 3-yard-line last-second fumble. For those of you keeping score, this one put the Dean Campaign down 15-0 with just a few minutes to go in this season's final game. The people that talk only about the daily fundraising totals will argue this only bolstered the reasons for believing that Dean can come back (the Campaign raised over $700K yesterday based on the aforementioned plea). But those people - while certainly necessary for any Campaign - are complete and utterly overly-optimistic morons.
Am I sounding increasingly harsh? Sorry - I'm just channeling the news as it pours over those few junkies such as myself that pay WAY TOO MUCH attention to such things. Kerry got Gephardt's endorsement today, assuring an impressive victory in labor-strong Michigan this Saturday. Washington's also looking like strong KerryCountry. Maine should have been competitive, but Kerry's got that state essentially wrapped up, too. Then VA and TN vote next Tuesday, where the dynamics will be Kerry vs. the Southern Guys (Edwards and, to a lesser degree, Clark). For Dean to delay the inevitable until the 17th when WI votes seems marginally savvy when you consider all the races he's expected to substantially lose before that time. But the sand in this hourglass is running out.
Look, I've contributed countless hours to the Dean Campaign. Most of the people I met there were folks I would invite to a dinner party, even if I had to sit next to them without requiring a conversational barrier. Smart people, dedicated to the cause they almost invariably left regular lives to join. But I have to be unbridled in my criticism of what's going in HQ as of late. It's not so much that the lunatics are running the asylum. It's that no one wants to admit just which lunatics are in charge. Yesterday's "anything less (than a Wisconsin win) will put us out of this race" drove it home like a prom-date Dad with an overly protective tendency. Sorry - overwrought metaphor. Nonetheless, the point must be made, no matter how painful.
Dean's consequently disavowed himself from making that pronouncement, calling it a brilliant "ploy" that he wouldn't take credit for. I still can't get a straight answer on who's responsible. In the end, it obviously doesn't matter. A decentralized campaign without a clue about strategic approaches to accountability will have many of these episodes. But when the future of your campaign is at stake, you'd think someone with a non-delayed paycheck would have something to say about the text the media was assured to jump on like a 3-yard-line last-second fumble. For those of you keeping score, this one put the Dean Campaign down 15-0 with just a few minutes to go in this season's final game. The people that talk only about the daily fundraising totals will argue this only bolstered the reasons for believing that Dean can come back (the Campaign raised over $700K yesterday based on the aforementioned plea). But those people - while certainly necessary for any Campaign - are complete and utterly overly-optimistic morons.
Am I sounding increasingly harsh? Sorry - I'm just channeling the news as it pours over those few junkies such as myself that pay WAY TOO MUCH attention to such things. Kerry got Gephardt's endorsement today, assuring an impressive victory in labor-strong Michigan this Saturday. Washington's also looking like strong KerryCountry. Maine should have been competitive, but Kerry's got that state essentially wrapped up, too. Then VA and TN vote next Tuesday, where the dynamics will be Kerry vs. the Southern Guys (Edwards and, to a lesser degree, Clark). For Dean to delay the inevitable until the 17th when WI votes seems marginally savvy when you consider all the races he's expected to substantially lose before that time. But the sand in this hourglass is running out.
Thursday, February 05, 2004
The "Last Stand in Cheeseland"
As much as I dismiss all the cheesy Wisconsin cliches used with alarming regularity, the use of this pun in today's WashPost to describe Dean's reliance on the Feb. 17th Primary there did make me chuckle (LINK). The article's description of Dean's dwindling staff morale, crowds, press corps and enthusiasm on the stump, however, is sadly true. Burlington's weekly alternative paper (home of the only must-read political column in the State) has begun the finger-pointing at individual Campaign staffers. In short, the Campaign deathwatch has begun. Superdelegates are being not-so-subtly lobbied to shift to Kerry. The unions are leaking stories about their desire to drop their endorsements. This weekend's MI and WA votes are expected to only add to the air of the inevitable. And the usually upbeat and KoolAid-flavored emails sent out to supporters unceremoniously reflect that utter change of message. Here's the jist from the body of this morning's message:
"We must launch our new television advertisement on Monday in the major markets in Wisconsin. To do that, I need your help to raise $700,000 by Sunday. Please contribute $50 today so that we can reserve the air time."
That email continues, quite ominously:
"We will get a boost this weekend in Washington, Michigan and Maine, but our true test will be the Wisconsin primary. A win there will carry us to the big states of March 2-and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of this race."
But don't assume for a moment that Dean's the only challenger that'll be eating some tough crow in the weeks ahead. Clark's staff also has had their paycheck suspended. Edwards is running low in the polls in Tennessee - a must-win for him next Tuesday. Sharpton didn't even garner a single delegate in South Carolina where he solely spent the last few months. In the end, it may come down to just Kerry and Kucinich (who amazingly had nearly $3M in cash on hand at the end of 2003 according to his FEC filings - enough for months worth of veggie burritos). So there might be a slim chance that the Special K's might be the remaining head-to-head combatents hanging in after Super Tuesday on March 2nd. Very, very slim, but possible.
As much as I dismiss all the cheesy Wisconsin cliches used with alarming regularity, the use of this pun in today's WashPost to describe Dean's reliance on the Feb. 17th Primary there did make me chuckle (LINK). The article's description of Dean's dwindling staff morale, crowds, press corps and enthusiasm on the stump, however, is sadly true. Burlington's weekly alternative paper (home of the only must-read political column in the State) has begun the finger-pointing at individual Campaign staffers. In short, the Campaign deathwatch has begun. Superdelegates are being not-so-subtly lobbied to shift to Kerry. The unions are leaking stories about their desire to drop their endorsements. This weekend's MI and WA votes are expected to only add to the air of the inevitable. And the usually upbeat and KoolAid-flavored emails sent out to supporters unceremoniously reflect that utter change of message. Here's the jist from the body of this morning's message:
"We must launch our new television advertisement on Monday in the major markets in Wisconsin. To do that, I need your help to raise $700,000 by Sunday. Please contribute $50 today so that we can reserve the air time."
That email continues, quite ominously:
"We will get a boost this weekend in Washington, Michigan and Maine, but our true test will be the Wisconsin primary. A win there will carry us to the big states of March 2-and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of this race."
But don't assume for a moment that Dean's the only challenger that'll be eating some tough crow in the weeks ahead. Clark's staff also has had their paycheck suspended. Edwards is running low in the polls in Tennessee - a must-win for him next Tuesday. Sharpton didn't even garner a single delegate in South Carolina where he solely spent the last few months. In the end, it may come down to just Kerry and Kucinich (who amazingly had nearly $3M in cash on hand at the end of 2003 according to his FEC filings - enough for months worth of veggie burritos). So there might be a slim chance that the Special K's might be the remaining head-to-head combatents hanging in after Super Tuesday on March 2nd. Very, very slim, but possible.
Wednesday, February 04, 2004
Super 7 Gives Dean Simply 7
Briefly, Dean's unwillingness to throw any effort in the direction of the Super 7 Primaries yesterday resulted in a dismal showing. 7 delegates. If you consider how much was spent in those states on ads prior to Iowa and NH (about $3M), that's more than $400K per delegate. One of the most wasteful expenditures in the history of Prez politicin'. Truly sad.
Kerry had what most are calling a great night last evening. To have swept the Super 7 might have thinned the field too much, to have scored less than 5 victories might have looked like a deflation. So with convincing margins, Kerry's definitely the one to beat. My, my - how things have coalesced in very short order.
Briefly, Dean's unwillingness to throw any effort in the direction of the Super 7 Primaries yesterday resulted in a dismal showing. 7 delegates. If you consider how much was spent in those states on ads prior to Iowa and NH (about $3M), that's more than $400K per delegate. One of the most wasteful expenditures in the history of Prez politicin'. Truly sad.
Kerry had what most are calling a great night last evening. To have swept the Super 7 might have thinned the field too much, to have scored less than 5 victories might have looked like a deflation. So with convincing margins, Kerry's definitely the one to beat. My, my - how things have coalesced in very short order.
Tuesday, February 03, 2004
Eyes Focused on the Actual Prize
Until just a bit earlier this morning, the Dean For America website didn't even mention that today's the Super 7 Primaries. Instead, the Campaign chose to promote tomorrow's "Meet Up" gatherings around the country. That, above and beyond anything else I've seen from the delusional Deaniacs in the last week, is an indication of just how their state of denial has polluted their vision of the overall stakes of this Election cycle. Thankfully, they've since minorly corrected course and posted a meek suggestion that people actually vote today. For those of you paying attention: South Carolina, Missouri, Oklahoma, Delaware, Arizona, New Mexico and North Dakota all have open polls today. Please do your duty and offer up your opinion of the current field if you live in any of the there's that are there. Your children and their children's children will thank you for the effort.
Until just a bit earlier this morning, the Dean For America website didn't even mention that today's the Super 7 Primaries. Instead, the Campaign chose to promote tomorrow's "Meet Up" gatherings around the country. That, above and beyond anything else I've seen from the delusional Deaniacs in the last week, is an indication of just how their state of denial has polluted their vision of the overall stakes of this Election cycle. Thankfully, they've since minorly corrected course and posted a meek suggestion that people actually vote today. For those of you paying attention: South Carolina, Missouri, Oklahoma, Delaware, Arizona, New Mexico and North Dakota all have open polls today. Please do your duty and offer up your opinion of the current field if you live in any of the there's that are there. Your children and their children's children will thank you for the effort.
Monday, February 02, 2004
The Patriots vs. The Boobie
Last night may well have been the best Super Bowl ever. A bit better than XXXVI (the other Patriots victory). Somewhat better than XXXIV (the Titans losing to the Rams by one yard as time ran out). An arm's length better than XXXII (the Packers getting humbled by the Broncos). And loads better than all the rest combined. New England should be assumed to be very late to report to work this morning. But unfortunately, more folks will be talking about Janet Jackson's staged boobie-baring with Justin Timberlake for the foreseeable future. I missed it, but the post-mortems have been hilarious (LINK). If you haven't seen any of it, consider yourself one of the blessed.
Last night may well have been the best Super Bowl ever. A bit better than XXXVI (the other Patriots victory). Somewhat better than XXXIV (the Titans losing to the Rams by one yard as time ran out). An arm's length better than XXXII (the Packers getting humbled by the Broncos). And loads better than all the rest combined. New England should be assumed to be very late to report to work this morning. But unfortunately, more folks will be talking about Janet Jackson's staged boobie-baring with Justin Timberlake for the foreseeable future. I missed it, but the post-mortems have been hilarious (LINK). If you haven't seen any of it, consider yourself one of the blessed.
Sunday, February 01, 2004
A Few Necessary Corrections
Dean's "Meet the Press" interview, the jist of the most recent email from one of the Campaign's loudest voices, and the Joe Trippi's interview on "Inside Politics" have inspired me to post a few thoughts.
1) All the overblown claims of "over half a million people committed to changing America" from the Deaniacs insults our collective political history. Forgive me for discrediting more than the population of the City of Minneapolis, but 500K ain't much in the grander context of this country's population. Any student of political history realizes just how many votes 3rd Party candidates usually get. Even though Nader "only" got 2.9M votes in 2000, Perot got 19.5M in '92 (Wisconsin's own Robert LaFollette got nearly 5M in '24). Check out the following link for a much-needed dose of reality (LINK).
2) During the "Meet the Press" interview, the first 20+ minutes were spent discussing political process questions (polls, momentum, attacks, campaign donations, yada yada yada). Within that eggregious waste of quality interview time, Dean continued his attack on Kerry for being the biggest recipient of "special interests" donations over the last 15 years in the Senate (a weirdly arbitrary time frame given that he was elected in 1984). Trippi also repeated that same charge a few times in his interview with Judy Woodruff. Valid point. In context. But while I won't even begin to defend Kerry's PAC contributions, I can't get past the hypocrisy of Dean later in his interview touting his NRA endorsements as an indication of how he'll pick up both rural and union votes in any general election fight. HELLO...can anyone out there think of a bigger "special interest" influence than the NRA?!! My own positions on gun control are pretty radical (outlaw handguns, mandatory registration of every firearm legal for future usage in any context) but I'll be damned if I'll let Dean off the hook for this sort of two-faced position in the COURSE OF THE SAME FRICKIN' INTERVIEW. Dean's smart - I've seen it and I won't discard his larger value to the Party. But this sort of cake-having-and-eating is ridiculous.
Dean's "Meet the Press" interview, the jist of the most recent email from one of the Campaign's loudest voices, and the Joe Trippi's interview on "Inside Politics" have inspired me to post a few thoughts.
1) All the overblown claims of "over half a million people committed to changing America" from the Deaniacs insults our collective political history. Forgive me for discrediting more than the population of the City of Minneapolis, but 500K ain't much in the grander context of this country's population. Any student of political history realizes just how many votes 3rd Party candidates usually get. Even though Nader "only" got 2.9M votes in 2000, Perot got 19.5M in '92 (Wisconsin's own Robert LaFollette got nearly 5M in '24). Check out the following link for a much-needed dose of reality (LINK).
2) During the "Meet the Press" interview, the first 20+ minutes were spent discussing political process questions (polls, momentum, attacks, campaign donations, yada yada yada). Within that eggregious waste of quality interview time, Dean continued his attack on Kerry for being the biggest recipient of "special interests" donations over the last 15 years in the Senate (a weirdly arbitrary time frame given that he was elected in 1984). Trippi also repeated that same charge a few times in his interview with Judy Woodruff. Valid point. In context. But while I won't even begin to defend Kerry's PAC contributions, I can't get past the hypocrisy of Dean later in his interview touting his NRA endorsements as an indication of how he'll pick up both rural and union votes in any general election fight. HELLO...can anyone out there think of a bigger "special interest" influence than the NRA?!! My own positions on gun control are pretty radical (outlaw handguns, mandatory registration of every firearm legal for future usage in any context) but I'll be damned if I'll let Dean off the hook for this sort of two-faced position in the COURSE OF THE SAME FRICKIN' INTERVIEW. Dean's smart - I've seen it and I won't discard his larger value to the Party. But this sort of cake-having-and-eating is ridiculous.
You Don't Always Get What You Paid For
Lots of fascinating reporting out there this morning. Most of the focus should be on the WashPost's story claiming that the Bush Administration will allow for an independent inquiry into the Iraq WMD intel (LINK). But a few political stories provide a startling contrast with regard to the use of cash.
The 4th Quarter of 2003 filings for the Prez campaigns were published yesterday. Dean spent $31.7M in 2003. Include his early 2004 spending and the insight is obvious - the Campaign's entirely broke (LINK). On the other hand, the Bushies ironically spent just a smidge less - $31.6M. They, however, appear to have used that money very wisely (LINK).
There's also a new LATimes/CNN poll out that shows just how far Kerry has risen in the opinion of Democrats (LINK). There's plenty of false inflation in those numbers, I suspect. Impressive uptick for him, nonetheless.
Time for me to focus a bit less on all this handicapping hooey. I'm making brats (an unavoidable homage to my Wisconsin heritage) and a baked fish/potato pie (a new touch of New England) so I need to make a grocery run. I'll give the full food recap post-Super Bowl.
Lots of fascinating reporting out there this morning. Most of the focus should be on the WashPost's story claiming that the Bush Administration will allow for an independent inquiry into the Iraq WMD intel (LINK). But a few political stories provide a startling contrast with regard to the use of cash.
The 4th Quarter of 2003 filings for the Prez campaigns were published yesterday. Dean spent $31.7M in 2003. Include his early 2004 spending and the insight is obvious - the Campaign's entirely broke (LINK). On the other hand, the Bushies ironically spent just a smidge less - $31.6M. They, however, appear to have used that money very wisely (LINK).
There's also a new LATimes/CNN poll out that shows just how far Kerry has risen in the opinion of Democrats (LINK). There's plenty of false inflation in those numbers, I suspect. Impressive uptick for him, nonetheless.
Time for me to focus a bit less on all this handicapping hooey. I'm making brats (an unavoidable homage to my Wisconsin heritage) and a baked fish/potato pie (a new touch of New England) so I need to make a grocery run. I'll give the full food recap post-Super Bowl.
