Tuesday, February 17, 2004
Thoughts On Wisconsin
It's been a long time since the Wisconsin Primary really mattered. Every news story filed in the last few weeks follows this line of thinking and usually harkens back to 1960, when JFK beat HHH in a surprise loss for "Wisconsin's Third Senator." I remember hearing stories in high school about how JFK passed through a tiny town (Westboro) that was a part of the district. Even with Dean being there for a few weeks and the others focusing on the state almost entirely for the past week, the candidates never really left the larger towns usually anchored by a University of Wisconsin extension and media outlets. But it still is awfully validating to consider that the world's attention is focused on Wisconsin voters today. Just to hear the BBC reporting from the state on the radio early this morning warmed my home-State-biased heart. Too bad that as soon as the day's over, everyone will go back to characterizing the State as being full of foam-cheese-wearing, snowmobile-racing-loving fans drunkenly living in hell's icebox. Or something to that effect.
Before things get rolling today, I want to take a real chance and publish my predictions. The latest Zogby numbers from yesterday showed it being much closer than what I'm thinking will be the case. Nevertheless...
Kerry - 45%
Edwards - 33%
Dean - 13%
I'm giving Edwards a great big bump from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel endorsement. And I'm maybe being unduly harsh toward Dean. Given the terrible news cycle for him yesterday, I have to assume it will hurt him. But with the huge turnout expected, all predictions are merely blind throws at the board. We'll see tonight just how far off the mark I am.
It's been a long time since the Wisconsin Primary really mattered. Every news story filed in the last few weeks follows this line of thinking and usually harkens back to 1960, when JFK beat HHH in a surprise loss for "Wisconsin's Third Senator." I remember hearing stories in high school about how JFK passed through a tiny town (Westboro) that was a part of the district. Even with Dean being there for a few weeks and the others focusing on the state almost entirely for the past week, the candidates never really left the larger towns usually anchored by a University of Wisconsin extension and media outlets. But it still is awfully validating to consider that the world's attention is focused on Wisconsin voters today. Just to hear the BBC reporting from the state on the radio early this morning warmed my home-State-biased heart. Too bad that as soon as the day's over, everyone will go back to characterizing the State as being full of foam-cheese-wearing, snowmobile-racing-loving fans drunkenly living in hell's icebox. Or something to that effect.
Before things get rolling today, I want to take a real chance and publish my predictions. The latest Zogby numbers from yesterday showed it being much closer than what I'm thinking will be the case. Nevertheless...
Kerry - 45%
Edwards - 33%
Dean - 13%
I'm giving Edwards a great big bump from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel endorsement. And I'm maybe being unduly harsh toward Dean. Given the terrible news cycle for him yesterday, I have to assume it will hurt him. But with the huge turnout expected, all predictions are merely blind throws at the board. We'll see tonight just how far off the mark I am.
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