Saturday, January 31, 2004
At Least the Spending Wasn't "Gi-normous"
The LA Times has yet another story this morning about the lost fortunes of the Dean campaign (LINK). In it, National Chairman Steve Grossman is quoted as reflecting on the spending in Iowa and New Hampshire in the following way - "enormous, and you can emphasize 'enormous.' " From a well-placed source on the finance side of the campaign, the article dishes out limited skinny on just where the spending went. Case in point (and one of the things I found most ridiculous in NH last week), the Campaign made 75,000 VHS copies of the Diane Sawyer interview to be passed out door-to-door and at rallies. I ask any rational adult to consider just how many of those tapes ended up going straight in the garbage - half, 3/4ths, more? I talked to some in-your-face Deaniacs handing out copies at the Kerry event I saw on Monday and they told me they'd heard that 80,000 to 100,000 had been distributed statewide. It just all anecdotally drives home the fact that I continually saw very-young, very-untested people handling the distribution of resources that were made to seem limitless. And even with all the advance ad spending invested in the Super 7 States and beyond ($3M, according to the LA Times piece), that money's now been sacrificed and replaced with a strategy focusing on Michigan and Washington state. So much for running a "50 State Campaign," eh?
One other major shift in the national reporting on the changing landscape in the Democratic race is the way Kerry's getting re-examined on a host of hostile levels. If he can let it ride until next Tuesday and run the table, it may not matter with regard to the nomination. But this is just the start of the mud to be slung his way, both deservedly and otherwise. Also, there's a piece in the NYTimes about Edwards beginnings as a trial lawyer (LINK). I'd heard the story of Edwards "channeling" the thoughts of an unborn baby girl in his closing arguments - it came from a very-Republican and very-well-informed friend of my in-laws which I took with a grain of salt at the time. That friend was obviously spot-on. When it is re-told here with other references to Edwards' successes the glaring size of his Achilles Heel is pretty imposing.
There's another story just up on the NYTimes website, so the assumption has to be that it will be in the dead-tree edition tomorrow (LINK). For the first time that I've seen, it itemizes just how scripted Dean's "I Have a Scream" speech was. But more importantly, it details rather well just how the competing camps of Vermont and DC advisors pulled the Campaign in dually expensive and often contradictory directions. Jodi Wilgoren gives the best brief history of the Dean ascendency and subsequent fall back to Earth that I've seen thus far.
With Super Bowl Sunday prepped to roll over us all tomorrow, few aside from the Kool Aid junkies out there will be paying much attention to Dean's "Meet the Press" interview tomorrow. From Milwaukee, no less! My home State, my Candidate, my Favorite Talking Head Show. The last (and only) time Dean appeared as a candidate with Tim Russert (the BEST in his business, besides the incomparable Brian Lamb on C-SPAN), the results were ugly. Not to most Dean supporters, of course. I fully expect a round of questioning equally challenging and perplexing as those Dean endured this Summer. My personal fave - how many active duty U.S. Military personnel (were) there at that time. My wife had to endure me screaming 1.4 million at the screen then in hopes of Dean pulling out of his arrogant tailspin in reaction to not knowing the answer. Thankfully, she'll be at work at the hospital tomorrow morning, lest she have to endure any similar rants on my part. Anyhoo, expect the pre-Russert tailgating to start early in my little section of the Nation's parking lot tomorrow morning. The brats come later in the day, the political red meat will be served up first.
The LA Times has yet another story this morning about the lost fortunes of the Dean campaign (LINK). In it, National Chairman Steve Grossman is quoted as reflecting on the spending in Iowa and New Hampshire in the following way - "enormous, and you can emphasize 'enormous.' " From a well-placed source on the finance side of the campaign, the article dishes out limited skinny on just where the spending went. Case in point (and one of the things I found most ridiculous in NH last week), the Campaign made 75,000 VHS copies of the Diane Sawyer interview to be passed out door-to-door and at rallies. I ask any rational adult to consider just how many of those tapes ended up going straight in the garbage - half, 3/4ths, more? I talked to some in-your-face Deaniacs handing out copies at the Kerry event I saw on Monday and they told me they'd heard that 80,000 to 100,000 had been distributed statewide. It just all anecdotally drives home the fact that I continually saw very-young, very-untested people handling the distribution of resources that were made to seem limitless. And even with all the advance ad spending invested in the Super 7 States and beyond ($3M, according to the LA Times piece), that money's now been sacrificed and replaced with a strategy focusing on Michigan and Washington state. So much for running a "50 State Campaign," eh?
One other major shift in the national reporting on the changing landscape in the Democratic race is the way Kerry's getting re-examined on a host of hostile levels. If he can let it ride until next Tuesday and run the table, it may not matter with regard to the nomination. But this is just the start of the mud to be slung his way, both deservedly and otherwise. Also, there's a piece in the NYTimes about Edwards beginnings as a trial lawyer (LINK). I'd heard the story of Edwards "channeling" the thoughts of an unborn baby girl in his closing arguments - it came from a very-Republican and very-well-informed friend of my in-laws which I took with a grain of salt at the time. That friend was obviously spot-on. When it is re-told here with other references to Edwards' successes the glaring size of his Achilles Heel is pretty imposing.
There's another story just up on the NYTimes website, so the assumption has to be that it will be in the dead-tree edition tomorrow (LINK). For the first time that I've seen, it itemizes just how scripted Dean's "I Have a Scream" speech was. But more importantly, it details rather well just how the competing camps of Vermont and DC advisors pulled the Campaign in dually expensive and often contradictory directions. Jodi Wilgoren gives the best brief history of the Dean ascendency and subsequent fall back to Earth that I've seen thus far.
With Super Bowl Sunday prepped to roll over us all tomorrow, few aside from the Kool Aid junkies out there will be paying much attention to Dean's "Meet the Press" interview tomorrow. From Milwaukee, no less! My home State, my Candidate, my Favorite Talking Head Show. The last (and only) time Dean appeared as a candidate with Tim Russert (the BEST in his business, besides the incomparable Brian Lamb on C-SPAN), the results were ugly. Not to most Dean supporters, of course. I fully expect a round of questioning equally challenging and perplexing as those Dean endured this Summer. My personal fave - how many active duty U.S. Military personnel (were) there at that time. My wife had to endure me screaming 1.4 million at the screen then in hopes of Dean pulling out of his arrogant tailspin in reaction to not knowing the answer. Thankfully, she'll be at work at the hospital tomorrow morning, lest she have to endure any similar rants on my part. Anyhoo, expect the pre-Russert tailgating to start early in my little section of the Nation's parking lot tomorrow morning. The brats come later in the day, the political red meat will be served up first.
Friday, January 30, 2004
The Inevitable Post-Mortems Continue
The dissection of the corpse that was the Dean Campaign has begun in earnest. Everywhere I look over the last few days, the news is terrible. The Campaign (reportedly) has $3M in cash on hand, about that much in debts. Trippi's an emotional mess (the just-published GQ profile is the best example of his Icarus-like flight - it's volumunious, but you should read it here Link). Not only Kerry but Edwards and Clark are trouncing Dean in every single poll from the states voting next Tuesday (I'm not rubbing salt in the wound - the numbers I've seen this afternoon come directly from the campaign's Media folk). If you're one of the legions of people that spend time "trolling the blog" as the kids say (Link) you've probably got a very different view of what Dean's heavy-in-denial supporters are saying. But that's crap. Case in point - HQ is trying to enlist volunteers to travel to NH this weekend to pack up the regional offices so that the campaign doesn't get charged for February rent. Everyone in the know knows it's kaput. It's all over except for the concession speech.
Speaking of the blog (and for those of you that are confused, it's a general reference to the postings put up by people that represent the equivalent of an instantaneous electronic bulletin board of suggestions/rants/mindlessness), I'm a total convert on the importance of it with regard to American politics. I remember distinctly having a discussion with my older brother in Wisconsin over the holidays about how I thought it "could" change the way people talk about politics. Being older, probably wiser in terms of technical utility (he's an IT project manager with many years of real experience), and decidedly more cynical, he laughed off my claims as wishful thinking. He was right. I'd drunk the Kool Aid, and even though I didn't yet understand it, I sounded like a dot com pitch. The amazing thing about the whole Dean collapse is just how old-fashioned the entire process has remained even through the constant barrage of bunk spun by the Deaniacs and sympathetic journalists and pundits that also sipped from propagandistic nectar handed out for months on end. American voters in the traditional battle grounds don't want to be told that they need to change the way they choose candidates. Retirees from Iowa and New Hampshire surely don't want to be called by 20-year-old AWOL waiters from Santa Cruz telling them to come to a rally to take back the power - they already have the power, in their opinions, and they resent the implication that they've not used it properly in elections past. With each passing day, I'm more and more convinced that the Dean movement simply won't translate to national politics until, and unless, a massive wave of attrition thins out the population of most people currently running the country. I'm not calling for that wave of death or even saying that I'm happy to make that judgment, but I am certainly willing to admit when I'm wrong.
To take my mind of politics for a few hours, I'm headed out to catch a truly escapist movie. "Bubba Ho Tep" - the story of Elvis and JFK (who did not die when we were led to believe) rising from their shared retirement home to combat an ancient evil zombie. Seriously. Just like the Dean campaign's epic demise, you just can't make this stuff up.
The dissection of the corpse that was the Dean Campaign has begun in earnest. Everywhere I look over the last few days, the news is terrible. The Campaign (reportedly) has $3M in cash on hand, about that much in debts. Trippi's an emotional mess (the just-published GQ profile is the best example of his Icarus-like flight - it's volumunious, but you should read it here Link). Not only Kerry but Edwards and Clark are trouncing Dean in every single poll from the states voting next Tuesday (I'm not rubbing salt in the wound - the numbers I've seen this afternoon come directly from the campaign's Media folk). If you're one of the legions of people that spend time "trolling the blog" as the kids say (Link) you've probably got a very different view of what Dean's heavy-in-denial supporters are saying. But that's crap. Case in point - HQ is trying to enlist volunteers to travel to NH this weekend to pack up the regional offices so that the campaign doesn't get charged for February rent. Everyone in the know knows it's kaput. It's all over except for the concession speech.
Speaking of the blog (and for those of you that are confused, it's a general reference to the postings put up by people that represent the equivalent of an instantaneous electronic bulletin board of suggestions/rants/mindlessness), I'm a total convert on the importance of it with regard to American politics. I remember distinctly having a discussion with my older brother in Wisconsin over the holidays about how I thought it "could" change the way people talk about politics. Being older, probably wiser in terms of technical utility (he's an IT project manager with many years of real experience), and decidedly more cynical, he laughed off my claims as wishful thinking. He was right. I'd drunk the Kool Aid, and even though I didn't yet understand it, I sounded like a dot com pitch. The amazing thing about the whole Dean collapse is just how old-fashioned the entire process has remained even through the constant barrage of bunk spun by the Deaniacs and sympathetic journalists and pundits that also sipped from propagandistic nectar handed out for months on end. American voters in the traditional battle grounds don't want to be told that they need to change the way they choose candidates. Retirees from Iowa and New Hampshire surely don't want to be called by 20-year-old AWOL waiters from Santa Cruz telling them to come to a rally to take back the power - they already have the power, in their opinions, and they resent the implication that they've not used it properly in elections past. With each passing day, I'm more and more convinced that the Dean movement simply won't translate to national politics until, and unless, a massive wave of attrition thins out the population of most people currently running the country. I'm not calling for that wave of death or even saying that I'm happy to make that judgment, but I am certainly willing to admit when I'm wrong.
To take my mind of politics for a few hours, I'm headed out to catch a truly escapist movie. "Bubba Ho Tep" - the story of Elvis and JFK (who did not die when we were led to believe) rising from their shared retirement home to combat an ancient evil zombie. Seriously. Just like the Dean campaign's epic demise, you just can't make this stuff up.
Thursday, January 29, 2004
An Epic Update (in my opinion)
It's now Thursday morning, I'm back in VT and the entire world has changed for the Dean campaign. I've been terribly remiss (to give myself WAY too much credit) for not posting my thoughts in the last few days. But things have been in such flux that I hope you'll understand it took a bit to digest what's happened both right before and since the NH Primary. I'm done sitting on my haunches. I've got some ranting/rationalizing to do. And I hope if I'm read by anyone at all, they'll understand that I'm not happy to make the pronouncements I'm about to post on the Web.
Dean's over. Not entirely over as in dead, but definitively over as a candidate. I saw everyone in NH, including a creepily robotic Clark at a truckstop @ 6:30am on Monday and a dull Kerry in a rally in Keene in that early afternoon (more on that below). But the single most unimpressive performance was that I saw from Dean on last Thursday. Given how much positive press Dean got over the weekend, that sounds like an especially harsh snapshot, I realize. Still, I saw the writing on the wall well before the pundits noticed the mess in the last 24 hours. I'm hardly an insider and not one to offer any dirt other than a few choice observations. Yet if Dean's campaign was built by a grassroots commentary on politics as usual, I expect that many will give me credit for calling it straight as I've seen it unfold. In that light, I offer the following recap of the last few days.
Monday was all about momentum and "get out the vote" crapola. Calls were made by candidates and uninformed supporters alike, usually with the same degree of success. Clark chose to canvass NH's 10 counties in a crazed roadtrip that began in Lebanon at a truckstop with an oddly Wild West-themed motif, while the others played the equally calculated game of stump-speech rallies and massive ad buys. In the end, it certainly meant little. Almost every New Hampshirite I spoke with this month made it obvious that they would withhold declaring their intentions until they'd assessed just who might get elected in the grander scheme of the general Election in November. Using that looking glass, Kerry kicked everyone's butt thrice up and doubled down. Dean spent most of Monday decrying so-called "dirty tricks" - a defensive ploy that I could easily discredit based on something I saw at the Kerry rally in Keene, but I've chosen to let bygones be bygones. Regardless, the worst kept secret in the State came to fruition as Monday's last ditch efforts passed - the Democrats that showed up in record-breaking numbers wanted a winner and all the rest was so much lost body heat.
I spent an hour early on Primary Day at the counter in Lou's restaurant in Hanover, chatting with some locals and watching essentially even the most casual acquaintance remind one another to be sure and vote. Anyone that decries the "First in the Nation" status enjoyed by NH's Primary should spend a few minutes with these people - they take their job as citizens extremely seriously and no one can claim that the outcome is in any way rigged (another reason I completely refute the claim of sour grapes uttered by Dean far too repeatedly over the last 24 hours of campaigning there). Whatever happened was going to happen. Period. And that's where the whole world changed for a number of the campaigns.
Time for some rapid-fire pronouncements. Lieberman's well past well-done - he should have the humility to understand that his "split decision for third place" concession speech was the single most eggregious spin of the entire season thus far. Edwards is angling for the Veep, even if he won't admit it. Yet. Clark was a great marketing idea, but he's a lousy, lousy campaigner - you just don't learn these skills in a few months of work. Dean's the most erratic campaigner in the modern era, whose passion is nonetheless admirable and truly inspiring. But he's never lost a single political race and his reactions tow that line entirely. Kerry's a natural winner, just not one to inspire anyone beyond the previously allied or entirely rational voter. He'll be a tougher sell than door-to-door insurance over the long haul of this race unless the world collapses even further under Bush, which may well be the road we're stuck on. In short, the Democratic Party is dealing with the fact that its Minor League system has developed next to nil talent worth Big League contracts in the years since Clinton. That's the way it is when you look at the Sun, I suppose. You'll be blinded for a period of time, still focused on the brilliance you've just seen.
Amazingly, the day after the Primary turned out to be a bigger shock than the vote itself - the reports are swirling around the media this morning concerning Joe Trippi's departure from the Dean campaign. The speculation will carry through next Tuesday's Super 7 Primaries, at the very least. The one verdict that is indellible - the Dean campaign is coming apart at the seams. Roy Neel is probably a steady fellow, and Al Gore's friends surely get their phone calls taken by just about every media and political figure in the country. But the secondary effects will be huge. Dean can no longer rail against DC "special interests" - Neel ran a lobbying interest for the telecom industry since 1993 (he hasn't worked with a Presidential campaign since 1988 when he ran Gore's total tanker). Eveyone implies that Trippi quit on principle. The Deaniacs in cyberspace will be effectively vetoed in their influence (can anyone imagine Neel reading the often ridiculous hundreds of posts on Dean's blog like Trippi obviously did for hours on end?). But far, far more importantly - how can a campaign be so cavalier in wasting over $40M in small donations from those who've been drinking the Kool Aid for the past year as is now being ravenously reported? Can you imagine how many of the 500 staff who won't be paid for at least 2 weeks will either jump ship or subtlely look ahead to their exit strategies? The media is circling this debacle like a massive, cynically-brutal school of sharks, and this was supposed to be the week when the Dean campaign used the momentum gained from NH to propel it to a convincing uptick in the upcoming slate of Primaries? Pul-leeze - this was an historic implosion.
Kerry's tired, but he'll rest up and rally now that he's got the "Big Joe." No amount of positive spin from Edwards will take away the fact that Kerry's set up for a massive increase in his fortunes both in terms of fundraising and general perceptions of electability. Clark has a few weeks left, tops; Lieberman's cluelessly out of touch; Kucinich is delightfully out of touch; Sharpton's nytroglycerine in a squirt bottle; Dean's postponing the inevitable. There will be so much more to dissect about this massive realignment in the weeks ahead. Whatever comes of this for Election 2004, I predict that more people are paying attention to politics this year than anyone has willingly quantified versus the stagnant turnout in so many, many elections past. And with David Kay's "we ain't got no WMDs" story becoming the sort of Beltway parlor game that may not go away for years, the die may be cast for a truly astonishing race that will be unlelenting until November.
At least that's the way it looks from here in the glorious winterscape of late January Vermont.
It's now Thursday morning, I'm back in VT and the entire world has changed for the Dean campaign. I've been terribly remiss (to give myself WAY too much credit) for not posting my thoughts in the last few days. But things have been in such flux that I hope you'll understand it took a bit to digest what's happened both right before and since the NH Primary. I'm done sitting on my haunches. I've got some ranting/rationalizing to do. And I hope if I'm read by anyone at all, they'll understand that I'm not happy to make the pronouncements I'm about to post on the Web.
Dean's over. Not entirely over as in dead, but definitively over as a candidate. I saw everyone in NH, including a creepily robotic Clark at a truckstop @ 6:30am on Monday and a dull Kerry in a rally in Keene in that early afternoon (more on that below). But the single most unimpressive performance was that I saw from Dean on last Thursday. Given how much positive press Dean got over the weekend, that sounds like an especially harsh snapshot, I realize. Still, I saw the writing on the wall well before the pundits noticed the mess in the last 24 hours. I'm hardly an insider and not one to offer any dirt other than a few choice observations. Yet if Dean's campaign was built by a grassroots commentary on politics as usual, I expect that many will give me credit for calling it straight as I've seen it unfold. In that light, I offer the following recap of the last few days.
Monday was all about momentum and "get out the vote" crapola. Calls were made by candidates and uninformed supporters alike, usually with the same degree of success. Clark chose to canvass NH's 10 counties in a crazed roadtrip that began in Lebanon at a truckstop with an oddly Wild West-themed motif, while the others played the equally calculated game of stump-speech rallies and massive ad buys. In the end, it certainly meant little. Almost every New Hampshirite I spoke with this month made it obvious that they would withhold declaring their intentions until they'd assessed just who might get elected in the grander scheme of the general Election in November. Using that looking glass, Kerry kicked everyone's butt thrice up and doubled down. Dean spent most of Monday decrying so-called "dirty tricks" - a defensive ploy that I could easily discredit based on something I saw at the Kerry rally in Keene, but I've chosen to let bygones be bygones. Regardless, the worst kept secret in the State came to fruition as Monday's last ditch efforts passed - the Democrats that showed up in record-breaking numbers wanted a winner and all the rest was so much lost body heat.
I spent an hour early on Primary Day at the counter in Lou's restaurant in Hanover, chatting with some locals and watching essentially even the most casual acquaintance remind one another to be sure and vote. Anyone that decries the "First in the Nation" status enjoyed by NH's Primary should spend a few minutes with these people - they take their job as citizens extremely seriously and no one can claim that the outcome is in any way rigged (another reason I completely refute the claim of sour grapes uttered by Dean far too repeatedly over the last 24 hours of campaigning there). Whatever happened was going to happen. Period. And that's where the whole world changed for a number of the campaigns.
Time for some rapid-fire pronouncements. Lieberman's well past well-done - he should have the humility to understand that his "split decision for third place" concession speech was the single most eggregious spin of the entire season thus far. Edwards is angling for the Veep, even if he won't admit it. Yet. Clark was a great marketing idea, but he's a lousy, lousy campaigner - you just don't learn these skills in a few months of work. Dean's the most erratic campaigner in the modern era, whose passion is nonetheless admirable and truly inspiring. But he's never lost a single political race and his reactions tow that line entirely. Kerry's a natural winner, just not one to inspire anyone beyond the previously allied or entirely rational voter. He'll be a tougher sell than door-to-door insurance over the long haul of this race unless the world collapses even further under Bush, which may well be the road we're stuck on. In short, the Democratic Party is dealing with the fact that its Minor League system has developed next to nil talent worth Big League contracts in the years since Clinton. That's the way it is when you look at the Sun, I suppose. You'll be blinded for a period of time, still focused on the brilliance you've just seen.
Amazingly, the day after the Primary turned out to be a bigger shock than the vote itself - the reports are swirling around the media this morning concerning Joe Trippi's departure from the Dean campaign. The speculation will carry through next Tuesday's Super 7 Primaries, at the very least. The one verdict that is indellible - the Dean campaign is coming apart at the seams. Roy Neel is probably a steady fellow, and Al Gore's friends surely get their phone calls taken by just about every media and political figure in the country. But the secondary effects will be huge. Dean can no longer rail against DC "special interests" - Neel ran a lobbying interest for the telecom industry since 1993 (he hasn't worked with a Presidential campaign since 1988 when he ran Gore's total tanker). Eveyone implies that Trippi quit on principle. The Deaniacs in cyberspace will be effectively vetoed in their influence (can anyone imagine Neel reading the often ridiculous hundreds of posts on Dean's blog like Trippi obviously did for hours on end?). But far, far more importantly - how can a campaign be so cavalier in wasting over $40M in small donations from those who've been drinking the Kool Aid for the past year as is now being ravenously reported? Can you imagine how many of the 500 staff who won't be paid for at least 2 weeks will either jump ship or subtlely look ahead to their exit strategies? The media is circling this debacle like a massive, cynically-brutal school of sharks, and this was supposed to be the week when the Dean campaign used the momentum gained from NH to propel it to a convincing uptick in the upcoming slate of Primaries? Pul-leeze - this was an historic implosion.
Kerry's tired, but he'll rest up and rally now that he's got the "Big Joe." No amount of positive spin from Edwards will take away the fact that Kerry's set up for a massive increase in his fortunes both in terms of fundraising and general perceptions of electability. Clark has a few weeks left, tops; Lieberman's cluelessly out of touch; Kucinich is delightfully out of touch; Sharpton's nytroglycerine in a squirt bottle; Dean's postponing the inevitable. There will be so much more to dissect about this massive realignment in the weeks ahead. Whatever comes of this for Election 2004, I predict that more people are paying attention to politics this year than anyone has willingly quantified versus the stagnant turnout in so many, many elections past. And with David Kay's "we ain't got no WMDs" story becoming the sort of Beltway parlor game that may not go away for years, the die may be cast for a truly astonishing race that will be unlelenting until November.
At least that's the way it looks from here in the glorious winterscape of late January Vermont.
Monday, January 26, 2004
Election Eve in NH
The weather is brutally cold. The early morning sky was flawlessly clear this morning when I headed into Lebanon - billions of stars on parade with not even a moon to obscure them. The countless legions of volunteers and staff and media here with all the campaigns (except for the sorely missed Rev. Sharpton) one should expect are rising early with yet undaunted hopes for the final push. I'm sure more than a few New Hampshirites can't wait for this whole circus to pack up and leave town for another 4 years. I'm beginning to agree with that assumed position.
I went to an event yesterday afternoon sponsored by the Lifetime Network meant to more directly address women's issues. The candidates - Dean, Lieberman and Kucinich - arrived late and left early. All tolled, maybe an hour's worth of questions. The responses were measured and articulate, just as were the questions. Dean looks revitalized and sounded like his old self. Lieberman is charmingly astute, but I can't help but find his grandfatherly wit a bit smug. And Kucinich is the fiery prick, a role he seems to relish more and more as the days go by. Afterwards there was a reception where people were allowed to swill bad red wine and nibble on cold mini-crabcakes. Classy by most freebie event standards. The real treat, though, was getting a chance to chat with Kucinich for a bit (firm handshake, uber-white teeth, oddly self-assured manner - a damn straight strong candidate, albeit one for the ultra-fringe). He says he's in it for the duration, pointing to his captoe black dress shoes and lamely joking that "these are marathon shoes." I thanked him for his candidacy and told him to keep it up. I also connected with some Kerry folks after seeing Max Weinberg (Springsteen's drummer who also heads Conan O'Brien's "Late Show" band) and Scott Wolf (the elfin heartthrob from Fox's "Party of Five" and not much else although I'd peg him to play Kucinich in the TV movie adaptation of Election 2004) in a group of people there to promote him in lieu of the actual Senator. One of Kerry's national finance co-chairs introduced me to his nephew, Chris Heintz, and I can see what everyone says about the Kerry folks - clean, smart adults who have a not-so-faint air of Ivy League backgrounds and coolness about them. I can also see what is meant by the reported claims that these are the folks you'd choose to go have a drink with. The Dean folks, if they're even old enough, are widely viewed as just the opposite. No comment from this observer.
There's so much more to see today that I've got to get on the road and make some connections. The sun won't be up for more than an hour, but the coffee's brewed statewide and the candidates are wearing their advisers' favorite clothes. Hopefully, they've all brought a hat - they're gonna need 'em.
The weather is brutally cold. The early morning sky was flawlessly clear this morning when I headed into Lebanon - billions of stars on parade with not even a moon to obscure them. The countless legions of volunteers and staff and media here with all the campaigns (except for the sorely missed Rev. Sharpton) one should expect are rising early with yet undaunted hopes for the final push. I'm sure more than a few New Hampshirites can't wait for this whole circus to pack up and leave town for another 4 years. I'm beginning to agree with that assumed position.
I went to an event yesterday afternoon sponsored by the Lifetime Network meant to more directly address women's issues. The candidates - Dean, Lieberman and Kucinich - arrived late and left early. All tolled, maybe an hour's worth of questions. The responses were measured and articulate, just as were the questions. Dean looks revitalized and sounded like his old self. Lieberman is charmingly astute, but I can't help but find his grandfatherly wit a bit smug. And Kucinich is the fiery prick, a role he seems to relish more and more as the days go by. Afterwards there was a reception where people were allowed to swill bad red wine and nibble on cold mini-crabcakes. Classy by most freebie event standards. The real treat, though, was getting a chance to chat with Kucinich for a bit (firm handshake, uber-white teeth, oddly self-assured manner - a damn straight strong candidate, albeit one for the ultra-fringe). He says he's in it for the duration, pointing to his captoe black dress shoes and lamely joking that "these are marathon shoes." I thanked him for his candidacy and told him to keep it up. I also connected with some Kerry folks after seeing Max Weinberg (Springsteen's drummer who also heads Conan O'Brien's "Late Show" band) and Scott Wolf (the elfin heartthrob from Fox's "Party of Five" and not much else although I'd peg him to play Kucinich in the TV movie adaptation of Election 2004) in a group of people there to promote him in lieu of the actual Senator. One of Kerry's national finance co-chairs introduced me to his nephew, Chris Heintz, and I can see what everyone says about the Kerry folks - clean, smart adults who have a not-so-faint air of Ivy League backgrounds and coolness about them. I can also see what is meant by the reported claims that these are the folks you'd choose to go have a drink with. The Dean folks, if they're even old enough, are widely viewed as just the opposite. No comment from this observer.
There's so much more to see today that I've got to get on the road and make some connections. The sun won't be up for more than an hour, but the coffee's brewed statewide and the candidates are wearing their advisers' favorite clothes. Hopefully, they've all brought a hat - they're gonna need 'em.
Saturday, January 24, 2004
The Rant Lives On (or does it?)
I've been dancing around which Campaign I work for since I started this blog. Partly because I know that the Deaniacs monitor current blog postings in the ether (consider them a sort of Not-So-Big Brother) and I didn't want to hit anyone's radar. But also because I wanted to sound somewhat impartial in my initial assessments of NH. I can't keep this up. Especially since I helped with a Dean rally Thursday in Lebanon and need to vent some of my impressions that I've been cooking up since then. Without wanting to sound too negative, the Campaign's certainly got bigger things to address than the largely unread opinions of a low-level lackey.
I'm looking backwards about 48 hours, which proves to be eons in the political cycles NH goes through these days. The Dean event I helped with on Thursday was hastily arranged. In a world where momentum is everything, such last minute rallies are only as good as the feeling on the street. The feeling on the Street in downtown Lebanon that day was, well, bland. All anyone was talking about then and largely still now is the infamous "I Have a Scream" speech in Iowa on Monday. Before the Rally got rolling, I went to Lou's Restaurant in Hanover to get a handle on what the locals at that legendary diner were talking about (Dean stopped by Lou's after I left and filmed his "Top 10 List" for Letterman therein). As expected, the locals and employees were talking about the Primary. The candidates all come through Lou's, a waitress nonchalantly told me. They try not to judge the race until they've seen them all. New Hampshirites are amazingly self-aware and poised when it comes to getting such questions.
After polishing off my Country Breakfast, I headed back to the office. We all got our assignments and descended upon the Opera House. The crowd trickled in. Eventually, the Opera House got to be about 3/4 filled, but that included about 50 volunteers and the traveling press corps which numbered 40 or so including some heavyweights like Howard Kurtz who usually doesn't travel with the Dean pool. Dean had a cold and sounded terribly hoarse as he delivered his stump speech for the umpteenth time to the faithful. The average age of the crowd seemed to be about 50, meaning I expect few young people skipped work to attend. As many as half of the people came down from Vermont. In other words, it wasn't anything like the fiery, filled-to-capacity crowds that often have followed Dean around the country. The rally began with a new video from the Campaign, shot at the Manchester headquarters a day earlier. Sadly, once again all it addressed was the claims that this campaign is a brand-new style of organizing. The Dean campaign really does feel like a dot com - all about the process of exciting new directions with a marvelous and clever business plan. Dot coms were awfully cool for a while and they entirely fired up a generation of young entrepeneurs. But when they failed, the hangover effect was debilitating for many. I can't help but imagine the cynical press corps looking at videos like this and saying, "yea, but..." As in, OK, you've got an extremely cool website, but there's gotta be more or these people, these hard-to-sway weathered New Hampshirites, just won't vote for you. I saw nothing in Thursday's rally to make me feel that anyone's gonna be swayed by such efforts.
Am I being harsh? I certainly hope not. Already today there's press filings about Friday events that were very well attended and the positive spin on things may be working. It's bitterly cold in New England, so much of the door-to-door canvassing expected this weekend will be cancelled. And there's still a sizable number of undecided voters identified in every poll I've seen all week. So this whole game still has a few more opportunities for all the players to make their last big plays. Politics, after all, is a contact sport. Nowhere is that more evident than in the up-close and personal world that is the New Hampshire Primary.
I've been dancing around which Campaign I work for since I started this blog. Partly because I know that the Deaniacs monitor current blog postings in the ether (consider them a sort of Not-So-Big Brother) and I didn't want to hit anyone's radar. But also because I wanted to sound somewhat impartial in my initial assessments of NH. I can't keep this up. Especially since I helped with a Dean rally Thursday in Lebanon and need to vent some of my impressions that I've been cooking up since then. Without wanting to sound too negative, the Campaign's certainly got bigger things to address than the largely unread opinions of a low-level lackey.
I'm looking backwards about 48 hours, which proves to be eons in the political cycles NH goes through these days. The Dean event I helped with on Thursday was hastily arranged. In a world where momentum is everything, such last minute rallies are only as good as the feeling on the street. The feeling on the Street in downtown Lebanon that day was, well, bland. All anyone was talking about then and largely still now is the infamous "I Have a Scream" speech in Iowa on Monday. Before the Rally got rolling, I went to Lou's Restaurant in Hanover to get a handle on what the locals at that legendary diner were talking about (Dean stopped by Lou's after I left and filmed his "Top 10 List" for Letterman therein). As expected, the locals and employees were talking about the Primary. The candidates all come through Lou's, a waitress nonchalantly told me. They try not to judge the race until they've seen them all. New Hampshirites are amazingly self-aware and poised when it comes to getting such questions.
After polishing off my Country Breakfast, I headed back to the office. We all got our assignments and descended upon the Opera House. The crowd trickled in. Eventually, the Opera House got to be about 3/4 filled, but that included about 50 volunteers and the traveling press corps which numbered 40 or so including some heavyweights like Howard Kurtz who usually doesn't travel with the Dean pool. Dean had a cold and sounded terribly hoarse as he delivered his stump speech for the umpteenth time to the faithful. The average age of the crowd seemed to be about 50, meaning I expect few young people skipped work to attend. As many as half of the people came down from Vermont. In other words, it wasn't anything like the fiery, filled-to-capacity crowds that often have followed Dean around the country. The rally began with a new video from the Campaign, shot at the Manchester headquarters a day earlier. Sadly, once again all it addressed was the claims that this campaign is a brand-new style of organizing. The Dean campaign really does feel like a dot com - all about the process of exciting new directions with a marvelous and clever business plan. Dot coms were awfully cool for a while and they entirely fired up a generation of young entrepeneurs. But when they failed, the hangover effect was debilitating for many. I can't help but imagine the cynical press corps looking at videos like this and saying, "yea, but..." As in, OK, you've got an extremely cool website, but there's gotta be more or these people, these hard-to-sway weathered New Hampshirites, just won't vote for you. I saw nothing in Thursday's rally to make me feel that anyone's gonna be swayed by such efforts.
Am I being harsh? I certainly hope not. Already today there's press filings about Friday events that were very well attended and the positive spin on things may be working. It's bitterly cold in New England, so much of the door-to-door canvassing expected this weekend will be cancelled. And there's still a sizable number of undecided voters identified in every poll I've seen all week. So this whole game still has a few more opportunities for all the players to make their last big plays. Politics, after all, is a contact sport. Nowhere is that more evident than in the up-close and personal world that is the New Hampshire Primary.
Thursday, January 22, 2004
Little Moments, Writ Large
Huge day for many campaigns tonight - the last debate before the NH Primary. Kerry's definitely got the momentum now and I expect the dynamic to shift this evening in a big way. Dean on the attack. Clark on the attack. Edwards on the powerhug. Kerry on defense, both for himself and the nation. If Dean fairs poorly, his plummetting poll numbers will continue in that direction, you can be sure. People here are paying attention. I assume they always do. Even if this year's race is so overwhelming that they've gotten to the point of wanting to shut it off. Which brings me to my tale of the Trail from yesterday.
Given that I'm operating at the most basic field level of gruntness, I joined in on a "lit drop" for about 5 hours yesterday. The weather, thankfully, was in the 20s with sun and no wind - it doesn't get much better than that in January in the Upper Valley. With my assigned partner - a middle-aged gentleman here on a quixotic quest to somehow become attached to the Campaign after what sounds like a rather vagabond life over the last 20ish years - we were assigned an area of West Lebanon and given 1000 mock newspapers filled with press releases and carefully chosen photos of our candidate. In other words, a waste of dead trees. But we started on our mission nonetheless motivated to spread the word and walk off some of the crap you end up eating around the office in between making phone calls to irritated NH voters. The mundanity of sticking rolled up fake newspapers in the front doors of unsuspecting residents soon was brightened by being able to just walk, walk, walk.
About halfway through our pile, I started walking down a block with a mailman who was doing his route. I assumed immediately that he would be irritated by me mirroring his path, so I began our inevitable conversation by doing my best to chat as if we were seated next to one another in a diner or friendly neighborhood bar. I wanted to avoid sounding like one of the countless drones out promoting their candidate, so I tried to stay away from politics initially. By about our fourth or fifth house, I ran out of inane chatter so I asked him if this year's Primary was producing more direct mail by his estimate than other years. The floodgates now open, I got an education. Let me preface this by saying that he then said, "all I care about is that we get that a****** we've got now out of office." But then he showed me a handful of what residents are getting. It's ridiculous - piles and piles of flyers and postcards and invites and every imaginable reminder for next Tuesday's election, as if any resident could possibly not know by now. This mailman - this wonderfully charming, as it turns out, NH native who started delivering mail a day after his 18th birthday and was as of yesterday only 99 days away from full retirement - can't do anything but shake his head and say that he just can't stand delivering this crap anymore. He told me about past Primaries - who he's met, who had a good handshake, and who got his vote because of it. As we continued through the remainder of our shared path, I found myself telling him about my travels, my views and my take on politics. One house had a friendly old mutt roped up outside the frontdoor and he told me, "this one's a softie" allowing me to confidently pat him on the head and slip my garbage into the front door handle. Soon enough he was getting back into his truck and I was continuing on my way. We exchanged friendly good wishes, I never offered my name or got his, and I continued through to the end of my route replaying the lessons I learned.
Most of the remainder of the day was downhill from there. Our office was knee-deep in planning a visit by our candidate upcoming this morning. Advance people from Headquarters arrived with ridiculous requests. A friendly retiree brought by a huge pot of pasta for the troops because a friend told her the staff were "all going to get sick" because they were eating so poorly. And a multitude of little victories and losses for each and every person here was experienced. Just like in life, except a little sillier than normally so.
Huge day for many campaigns tonight - the last debate before the NH Primary. Kerry's definitely got the momentum now and I expect the dynamic to shift this evening in a big way. Dean on the attack. Clark on the attack. Edwards on the powerhug. Kerry on defense, both for himself and the nation. If Dean fairs poorly, his plummetting poll numbers will continue in that direction, you can be sure. People here are paying attention. I assume they always do. Even if this year's race is so overwhelming that they've gotten to the point of wanting to shut it off. Which brings me to my tale of the Trail from yesterday.
Given that I'm operating at the most basic field level of gruntness, I joined in on a "lit drop" for about 5 hours yesterday. The weather, thankfully, was in the 20s with sun and no wind - it doesn't get much better than that in January in the Upper Valley. With my assigned partner - a middle-aged gentleman here on a quixotic quest to somehow become attached to the Campaign after what sounds like a rather vagabond life over the last 20ish years - we were assigned an area of West Lebanon and given 1000 mock newspapers filled with press releases and carefully chosen photos of our candidate. In other words, a waste of dead trees. But we started on our mission nonetheless motivated to spread the word and walk off some of the crap you end up eating around the office in between making phone calls to irritated NH voters. The mundanity of sticking rolled up fake newspapers in the front doors of unsuspecting residents soon was brightened by being able to just walk, walk, walk.
About halfway through our pile, I started walking down a block with a mailman who was doing his route. I assumed immediately that he would be irritated by me mirroring his path, so I began our inevitable conversation by doing my best to chat as if we were seated next to one another in a diner or friendly neighborhood bar. I wanted to avoid sounding like one of the countless drones out promoting their candidate, so I tried to stay away from politics initially. By about our fourth or fifth house, I ran out of inane chatter so I asked him if this year's Primary was producing more direct mail by his estimate than other years. The floodgates now open, I got an education. Let me preface this by saying that he then said, "all I care about is that we get that a****** we've got now out of office." But then he showed me a handful of what residents are getting. It's ridiculous - piles and piles of flyers and postcards and invites and every imaginable reminder for next Tuesday's election, as if any resident could possibly not know by now. This mailman - this wonderfully charming, as it turns out, NH native who started delivering mail a day after his 18th birthday and was as of yesterday only 99 days away from full retirement - can't do anything but shake his head and say that he just can't stand delivering this crap anymore. He told me about past Primaries - who he's met, who had a good handshake, and who got his vote because of it. As we continued through the remainder of our shared path, I found myself telling him about my travels, my views and my take on politics. One house had a friendly old mutt roped up outside the frontdoor and he told me, "this one's a softie" allowing me to confidently pat him on the head and slip my garbage into the front door handle. Soon enough he was getting back into his truck and I was continuing on my way. We exchanged friendly good wishes, I never offered my name or got his, and I continued through to the end of my route replaying the lessons I learned.
Most of the remainder of the day was downhill from there. Our office was knee-deep in planning a visit by our candidate upcoming this morning. Advance people from Headquarters arrived with ridiculous requests. A friendly retiree brought by a huge pot of pasta for the troops because a friend told her the staff were "all going to get sick" because they were eating so poorly. And a multitude of little victories and losses for each and every person here was experienced. Just like in life, except a little sillier than normally so.
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
On The Ground
The entire traveling circus that is the Democratic field largely appears to be in NH, but from my vantage point they might as well be campaigning in the Belgium. That's because I'm working out of a small Campaign office with a dedicated group of true believers that doesn't even have a TV. To watch the State of the Union address last night, I had to head out to the friend's house I'm staying at through the Primary (more on the SOTU below). This office's walls are covered in yellowing press clippings and hand-lettered posters dating back over many months. The weather outside is not extremely cold, by penguin-standards, but there are assuredly few people in the world with the fortitude to stand in it for over an hour near an Interstate exit/entrance and whoot & holler for passersby to honk their horns while hoping they don't throw beer cans at you. But I'm here to check out the whole shebang, so I joined in the frigid fun, too. I'm barely able to comment on what sort of organization is here as of yet, but one thing is entirely obvious. The nuts and bolts of politics is finding people to do the calling and the envelope-stuffing and the postering and the countless thankless tasks necessary for even the lowest of elected offices. The fact that such people exist is amazing. Pulling them together for a common cause is astonishing. Getting it to work is mind-blowing. I'm certainly not the first to have a conversion from well-read cynic to involved lowly Patriot. Nor will I be the last, I hope.
Now a few words on the SOTU. Bush, for all his innumerable faults, certainly has learned to deliver a prepared text. Amazingly, it only took 3 years for him to learn that competency. The content of the speech itself was unsurprising - WMDs are now "WMD-related program capabilities" or an equally inane euphenism, marriage to Republicans is only for a man and a woman not for similarly-equipped consenting adults and/or their beloved pets, Iraq continues to be justified by a shifting focus, blah blah blah. The most astonishing thing I think Bush said was his call for professional sports' owners and players' unions to abolish steroids. If there ever was a line-item that should have been vetted out of a Presidential-level speech, that's gotta be it. Otherwise, no noticeable affronts to the Constitution or ridiculous Bushisms. Or, I should say, no new ones.
The sun's not yet up and there's not yet anyone in the office. Time to peruse the news for the latest spin on NH. I read briefly just prior to this entry that a new Zogby tracking poll here has Dean and Kerry within spitting distance of one another. I expect that just as in Iowa, this State's race will shift more than a 300-lb. man's Speedo in the days ahead. And I'll be watching it, as much as my stomach can bear.
The entire traveling circus that is the Democratic field largely appears to be in NH, but from my vantage point they might as well be campaigning in the Belgium. That's because I'm working out of a small Campaign office with a dedicated group of true believers that doesn't even have a TV. To watch the State of the Union address last night, I had to head out to the friend's house I'm staying at through the Primary (more on the SOTU below). This office's walls are covered in yellowing press clippings and hand-lettered posters dating back over many months. The weather outside is not extremely cold, by penguin-standards, but there are assuredly few people in the world with the fortitude to stand in it for over an hour near an Interstate exit/entrance and whoot & holler for passersby to honk their horns while hoping they don't throw beer cans at you. But I'm here to check out the whole shebang, so I joined in the frigid fun, too. I'm barely able to comment on what sort of organization is here as of yet, but one thing is entirely obvious. The nuts and bolts of politics is finding people to do the calling and the envelope-stuffing and the postering and the countless thankless tasks necessary for even the lowest of elected offices. The fact that such people exist is amazing. Pulling them together for a common cause is astonishing. Getting it to work is mind-blowing. I'm certainly not the first to have a conversion from well-read cynic to involved lowly Patriot. Nor will I be the last, I hope.
Now a few words on the SOTU. Bush, for all his innumerable faults, certainly has learned to deliver a prepared text. Amazingly, it only took 3 years for him to learn that competency. The content of the speech itself was unsurprising - WMDs are now "WMD-related program capabilities" or an equally inane euphenism, marriage to Republicans is only for a man and a woman not for similarly-equipped consenting adults and/or their beloved pets, Iraq continues to be justified by a shifting focus, blah blah blah. The most astonishing thing I think Bush said was his call for professional sports' owners and players' unions to abolish steroids. If there ever was a line-item that should have been vetted out of a Presidential-level speech, that's gotta be it. Otherwise, no noticeable affronts to the Constitution or ridiculous Bushisms. Or, I should say, no new ones.
The sun's not yet up and there's not yet anyone in the office. Time to peruse the news for the latest spin on NH. I read briefly just prior to this entry that a new Zogby tracking poll here has Dean and Kerry within spitting distance of one another. I expect that just as in Iowa, this State's race will shift more than a 300-lb. man's Speedo in the days ahead. And I'll be watching it, as much as my stomach can bear.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
It was official over 12 hours ago - I just gave the results some time to sink in. Kerry and Edwards pulled off the Iowa upset few could have imagined even a week ago. Gephardt pulled out and gave a classy concession speech after finishing in 4th place. Dean looked insane while trying to rally the troops surely stunned by his 20 point loss to Kerry. And then the whole show hit the road for NH. Pundits high and low are trying their best to qualify why they were all so far afield from what actually happened at the Caucuses. My thoughts are as follows:
The touchstone of Democratic successes in elections past was "organization." The Deaniacs thought they found a new way to develop it and translate it into electoral success by harnassing the decentralized nature of Meetups, the web, blogs, and all manner of technological wonders in that vein. But when I watched the C-SPAN covered caucus sites last evening, a healthy majority of folks looked like the people I fondly remember growing up surrounded by in small-town Wisconsin - older, comfortably-unhip white people. These people certainly are less swayed by an impressive website than a war hero's tearful reunion with a soldier whose life he'd saved 35 years ago or an upbeat speech by a nice young man with a glorious smile. The bigger surprise to me in terms of organization though is the obvious blow that the Unions must take to heart after their efforts fell flat. So then to contrast, what are the positives behind Kerry and Edwards' vault to the top? Maybe being articulate still means a bunch, even in the Bush era. Momentum can still be earned very quickly. And there's no longer such a thing as a pre-ordained favorite in this particular year's race. This all really leads to one important grandiose statement - Bush is entirely beatable. Some might find that a large leap of logic. It may well be. But in the days and weeks ahead I'll do my best to explain why I think it is entirely the truth of Election 2004.
It was official over 12 hours ago - I just gave the results some time to sink in. Kerry and Edwards pulled off the Iowa upset few could have imagined even a week ago. Gephardt pulled out and gave a classy concession speech after finishing in 4th place. Dean looked insane while trying to rally the troops surely stunned by his 20 point loss to Kerry. And then the whole show hit the road for NH. Pundits high and low are trying their best to qualify why they were all so far afield from what actually happened at the Caucuses. My thoughts are as follows:
The touchstone of Democratic successes in elections past was "organization." The Deaniacs thought they found a new way to develop it and translate it into electoral success by harnassing the decentralized nature of Meetups, the web, blogs, and all manner of technological wonders in that vein. But when I watched the C-SPAN covered caucus sites last evening, a healthy majority of folks looked like the people I fondly remember growing up surrounded by in small-town Wisconsin - older, comfortably-unhip white people. These people certainly are less swayed by an impressive website than a war hero's tearful reunion with a soldier whose life he'd saved 35 years ago or an upbeat speech by a nice young man with a glorious smile. The bigger surprise to me in terms of organization though is the obvious blow that the Unions must take to heart after their efforts fell flat. So then to contrast, what are the positives behind Kerry and Edwards' vault to the top? Maybe being articulate still means a bunch, even in the Bush era. Momentum can still be earned very quickly. And there's no longer such a thing as a pre-ordained favorite in this particular year's race. This all really leads to one important grandiose statement - Bush is entirely beatable. Some might find that a large leap of logic. It may well be. But in the days and weeks ahead I'll do my best to explain why I think it is entirely the truth of Election 2004.
Monday, January 19, 2004
Buh-bye, Dick
The numbers from Iowa are starting to roll in and with them, the tide for Dean and Gephardt is on its way out. When the history of this past week is written everyone will look for the rationales for such a crazed shift. From my perch here in Vermont, it seems somewhat obvious (albeit filtered through the likes of the C-SPAN and Hardball). Negativity pisses off Iowans. Howie and Dick started kicking each other's shins last Monday. They tried to stop last Friday. But the damage was done. Richard Gephardt will undoubtably pull out of the race in the days ahead - an honorable man who has been coaxed into an inglorious end. Howard Dean will fight fight fight until a nominee is determined. And Dennis Kucinich will stick around until he gets laid. In that order.
Chris Matthews just predicted that "John Kerry will win this thing tonight." I head to NH in the morning to mingle through the Primary on the 27th. The Nation will wake up to a whole new spin soon enough. Ah, politics - seldom is it this interesting or volatile. These are the days.
The numbers from Iowa are starting to roll in and with them, the tide for Dean and Gephardt is on its way out. When the history of this past week is written everyone will look for the rationales for such a crazed shift. From my perch here in Vermont, it seems somewhat obvious (albeit filtered through the likes of the C-SPAN and Hardball). Negativity pisses off Iowans. Howie and Dick started kicking each other's shins last Monday. They tried to stop last Friday. But the damage was done. Richard Gephardt will undoubtably pull out of the race in the days ahead - an honorable man who has been coaxed into an inglorious end. Howard Dean will fight fight fight until a nominee is determined. And Dennis Kucinich will stick around until he gets laid. In that order.
Chris Matthews just predicted that "John Kerry will win this thing tonight." I head to NH in the morning to mingle through the Primary on the 27th. The Nation will wake up to a whole new spin soon enough. Ah, politics - seldom is it this interesting or volatile. These are the days.
Friday, January 16, 2004
Polarity Shift
In a matter of days, the whole race as broadcast from Iowa has flipped 180 degrees. Dean and Gephardt may be tumbling, Kerry and Edwards may be surging. Idiotic press filings still fill the ether, but you have to be tonedeaf to not sense a monstrous change in the whole deal. My only prediction for the weekend is complete upheaval. Cats and dogs sleeping together. Fistfights in schoolyards and on frontporches. Cynical Bush supporters are, I expect, all aflutter with thoughts of Democrats infighting to the point of actual damage. But I take a different view. This puppy just got real. For all the griping about Iowa and New Hampshire's inordinately large effect on the overall Race, where else would Americans be able to focus their glare to understand just who's asking for votes in the months ahead? I'm not in Iowa and I'm heading to the polar opposite locale this weekend (NYC) for a wedding. Yet I know all I'll talk about with people from every walk of life will be just how crazy this whole process has become. Crazy good - just so you know.
In a matter of days, the whole race as broadcast from Iowa has flipped 180 degrees. Dean and Gephardt may be tumbling, Kerry and Edwards may be surging. Idiotic press filings still fill the ether, but you have to be tonedeaf to not sense a monstrous change in the whole deal. My only prediction for the weekend is complete upheaval. Cats and dogs sleeping together. Fistfights in schoolyards and on frontporches. Cynical Bush supporters are, I expect, all aflutter with thoughts of Democrats infighting to the point of actual damage. But I take a different view. This puppy just got real. For all the griping about Iowa and New Hampshire's inordinately large effect on the overall Race, where else would Americans be able to focus their glare to understand just who's asking for votes in the months ahead? I'm not in Iowa and I'm heading to the polar opposite locale this weekend (NYC) for a wedding. Yet I know all I'll talk about with people from every walk of life will be just how crazy this whole process has become. Crazy good - just so you know.
Thursday, January 15, 2004
Braun Exhibits Brains
As has been widely reported since last evening, Carol Mosley-Braun is planning to drop out of the race and endorse Dean. Yawn. I for one still have questions about her record as a one-term Senator who got embroiled in an ethics probe. But I respect her timing.
I've started to post some Links I look at regularly. I've had some failed efforts at blogging in the past and I tend to lose interest in most people's personal postings. Not that you should, of course. But here I hope to at least give you the standard view of what I'm seeing. Feel free to suggest to me what I've been missing.
e_magnuson@yahoo.com
As has been widely reported since last evening, Carol Mosley-Braun is planning to drop out of the race and endorse Dean. Yawn. I for one still have questions about her record as a one-term Senator who got embroiled in an ethics probe. But I respect her timing.
I've started to post some Links I look at regularly. I've had some failed efforts at blogging in the past and I tend to lose interest in most people's personal postings. Not that you should, of course. But here I hope to at least give you the standard view of what I'm seeing. Feel free to suggest to me what I've been missing.
e_magnuson@yahoo.com
The tide in Iowa may have turned. The new WHO-TV poll has Kerry in the lead for the first time. Dean, Gephardt and Edwards are all in the statisical running (within the 4.5% margin of error). So what does this mean? We ain't seen nothin' yet.
ABC News did a hatchet job on Dean last night that practically has Matt Drudge doing gleeful backflips. I read the piece - one of Gov. Dean's security officers beat his wife. I don't see the point. And now ABC News is in deep doo-doo with the Deaniacs. My only editorial reaction is that apparently now all stories are viable.
New England is frozen solid. The temp this morning on our back porch thermometer was -20F. And the really cold stuff still is on its way. I'm waiting for the stories about frost-bitten volunteers filing suits after NH. In this litigious society, it's only a matter of time.
ABC News did a hatchet job on Dean last night that practically has Matt Drudge doing gleeful backflips. I read the piece - one of Gov. Dean's security officers beat his wife. I don't see the point. And now ABC News is in deep doo-doo with the Deaniacs. My only editorial reaction is that apparently now all stories are viable.
New England is frozen solid. The temp this morning on our back porch thermometer was -20F. And the really cold stuff still is on its way. I'm waiting for the stories about frost-bitten volunteers filing suits after NH. In this litigious society, it's only a matter of time.
Wednesday, January 14, 2004
If you care about American politics, you have my sympathy. You - we, for that matter - have a serious problem, akin to nasty sexual tastes or a healthy bout of long-term alcoholism. Luckily for us, our fix is at hand. Election 2004, featuring the New Hampshire Primary before the whole show goes primetime soon thereafter. Iowa comes first and may this year be even more important. But I live in Vermont and I can't justify hauling my unemployed ass to the Midwest just for commentary sake. So to break the bottle on this ship, I'm launching my commentary with 2 weeks until NH. What I offer may not be all that different than some of the fringe politico-hooey you read on the web. That's the risk of life in this medium. Yet I'm confident that if you give me a chance to tell my story, I'll grow on you. Think friendly fungus.
First, some background. I've worked with one of the campaigns although I've always considered myself a journalist/writer. Like many of you, I read the crap out of the daily news and I can spout current affairs stats like a leaky bucket. I've moved around the country a bit - small town Wisconsin, the Twin Cities, Seattle, Dallas, Vermont. In so doing, I've seen enough of the country to realize that I like being a citizen even with all the messes this nation continues to make. Next stop - San Francisco, as of this upcoming summer. But until that time, you can bet your last greatly weakened dollar on the fact that I'll be here offering up my view of this year's Election with renewed focus. I'll even give you friendly odds.
So where do we start? Let's just set aside all the favorable and damning press delivered this past year in the form of the Punditcracy's handicapping. Dean raised oodles of cash that would have otherwise gone to NPR by harnassing a hydra-headed, far-too-cheeky web operation. Lieberman is the nice guy everyone secretly despises. Kerry ran through 2003 like a blind, one-legged leper, but may have found his footing just before sprinting to the finish. Edwards really does have nice hair. Sharpton's a hoot, but just unhinged enough to do real damage to any cause he chooses to support. Mosley-Braun's struggling for legitimacy, feebly so. Kucinich is the lovable flake in the race, even more out of touch than ever. Gephardt's as exciting as shopping for new tires. And Clark's scary smart even if he doesn't appear to blink more than once a minute and always on command. This all brings us around to Bush - the most amazing fluke in the history of geopolitical disasters. All the vitriol directed at him ain't that far off the mark. For the time being, however, I'm gonna ignore that 800-pound gorilla and pay some attention to the other monkeys rattling the cage.
There's a million better sources for news - I should know, I surf through them incessantly. But to add some traffic to their respective causes, I'll give a connotated sampling in my next post. Check back often - I'd hate for you to miss something. I pledge to make it worth your while.
First, some background. I've worked with one of the campaigns although I've always considered myself a journalist/writer. Like many of you, I read the crap out of the daily news and I can spout current affairs stats like a leaky bucket. I've moved around the country a bit - small town Wisconsin, the Twin Cities, Seattle, Dallas, Vermont. In so doing, I've seen enough of the country to realize that I like being a citizen even with all the messes this nation continues to make. Next stop - San Francisco, as of this upcoming summer. But until that time, you can bet your last greatly weakened dollar on the fact that I'll be here offering up my view of this year's Election with renewed focus. I'll even give you friendly odds.
So where do we start? Let's just set aside all the favorable and damning press delivered this past year in the form of the Punditcracy's handicapping. Dean raised oodles of cash that would have otherwise gone to NPR by harnassing a hydra-headed, far-too-cheeky web operation. Lieberman is the nice guy everyone secretly despises. Kerry ran through 2003 like a blind, one-legged leper, but may have found his footing just before sprinting to the finish. Edwards really does have nice hair. Sharpton's a hoot, but just unhinged enough to do real damage to any cause he chooses to support. Mosley-Braun's struggling for legitimacy, feebly so. Kucinich is the lovable flake in the race, even more out of touch than ever. Gephardt's as exciting as shopping for new tires. And Clark's scary smart even if he doesn't appear to blink more than once a minute and always on command. This all brings us around to Bush - the most amazing fluke in the history of geopolitical disasters. All the vitriol directed at him ain't that far off the mark. For the time being, however, I'm gonna ignore that 800-pound gorilla and pay some attention to the other monkeys rattling the cage.
There's a million better sources for news - I should know, I surf through them incessantly. But to add some traffic to their respective causes, I'll give a connotated sampling in my next post. Check back often - I'd hate for you to miss something. I pledge to make it worth your while.
