Thursday, January 29, 2004
An Epic Update (in my opinion)
It's now Thursday morning, I'm back in VT and the entire world has changed for the Dean campaign. I've been terribly remiss (to give myself WAY too much credit) for not posting my thoughts in the last few days. But things have been in such flux that I hope you'll understand it took a bit to digest what's happened both right before and since the NH Primary. I'm done sitting on my haunches. I've got some ranting/rationalizing to do. And I hope if I'm read by anyone at all, they'll understand that I'm not happy to make the pronouncements I'm about to post on the Web.
Dean's over. Not entirely over as in dead, but definitively over as a candidate. I saw everyone in NH, including a creepily robotic Clark at a truckstop @ 6:30am on Monday and a dull Kerry in a rally in Keene in that early afternoon (more on that below). But the single most unimpressive performance was that I saw from Dean on last Thursday. Given how much positive press Dean got over the weekend, that sounds like an especially harsh snapshot, I realize. Still, I saw the writing on the wall well before the pundits noticed the mess in the last 24 hours. I'm hardly an insider and not one to offer any dirt other than a few choice observations. Yet if Dean's campaign was built by a grassroots commentary on politics as usual, I expect that many will give me credit for calling it straight as I've seen it unfold. In that light, I offer the following recap of the last few days.
Monday was all about momentum and "get out the vote" crapola. Calls were made by candidates and uninformed supporters alike, usually with the same degree of success. Clark chose to canvass NH's 10 counties in a crazed roadtrip that began in Lebanon at a truckstop with an oddly Wild West-themed motif, while the others played the equally calculated game of stump-speech rallies and massive ad buys. In the end, it certainly meant little. Almost every New Hampshirite I spoke with this month made it obvious that they would withhold declaring their intentions until they'd assessed just who might get elected in the grander scheme of the general Election in November. Using that looking glass, Kerry kicked everyone's butt thrice up and doubled down. Dean spent most of Monday decrying so-called "dirty tricks" - a defensive ploy that I could easily discredit based on something I saw at the Kerry rally in Keene, but I've chosen to let bygones be bygones. Regardless, the worst kept secret in the State came to fruition as Monday's last ditch efforts passed - the Democrats that showed up in record-breaking numbers wanted a winner and all the rest was so much lost body heat.
I spent an hour early on Primary Day at the counter in Lou's restaurant in Hanover, chatting with some locals and watching essentially even the most casual acquaintance remind one another to be sure and vote. Anyone that decries the "First in the Nation" status enjoyed by NH's Primary should spend a few minutes with these people - they take their job as citizens extremely seriously and no one can claim that the outcome is in any way rigged (another reason I completely refute the claim of sour grapes uttered by Dean far too repeatedly over the last 24 hours of campaigning there). Whatever happened was going to happen. Period. And that's where the whole world changed for a number of the campaigns.
Time for some rapid-fire pronouncements. Lieberman's well past well-done - he should have the humility to understand that his "split decision for third place" concession speech was the single most eggregious spin of the entire season thus far. Edwards is angling for the Veep, even if he won't admit it. Yet. Clark was a great marketing idea, but he's a lousy, lousy campaigner - you just don't learn these skills in a few months of work. Dean's the most erratic campaigner in the modern era, whose passion is nonetheless admirable and truly inspiring. But he's never lost a single political race and his reactions tow that line entirely. Kerry's a natural winner, just not one to inspire anyone beyond the previously allied or entirely rational voter. He'll be a tougher sell than door-to-door insurance over the long haul of this race unless the world collapses even further under Bush, which may well be the road we're stuck on. In short, the Democratic Party is dealing with the fact that its Minor League system has developed next to nil talent worth Big League contracts in the years since Clinton. That's the way it is when you look at the Sun, I suppose. You'll be blinded for a period of time, still focused on the brilliance you've just seen.
Amazingly, the day after the Primary turned out to be a bigger shock than the vote itself - the reports are swirling around the media this morning concerning Joe Trippi's departure from the Dean campaign. The speculation will carry through next Tuesday's Super 7 Primaries, at the very least. The one verdict that is indellible - the Dean campaign is coming apart at the seams. Roy Neel is probably a steady fellow, and Al Gore's friends surely get their phone calls taken by just about every media and political figure in the country. But the secondary effects will be huge. Dean can no longer rail against DC "special interests" - Neel ran a lobbying interest for the telecom industry since 1993 (he hasn't worked with a Presidential campaign since 1988 when he ran Gore's total tanker). Eveyone implies that Trippi quit on principle. The Deaniacs in cyberspace will be effectively vetoed in their influence (can anyone imagine Neel reading the often ridiculous hundreds of posts on Dean's blog like Trippi obviously did for hours on end?). But far, far more importantly - how can a campaign be so cavalier in wasting over $40M in small donations from those who've been drinking the Kool Aid for the past year as is now being ravenously reported? Can you imagine how many of the 500 staff who won't be paid for at least 2 weeks will either jump ship or subtlely look ahead to their exit strategies? The media is circling this debacle like a massive, cynically-brutal school of sharks, and this was supposed to be the week when the Dean campaign used the momentum gained from NH to propel it to a convincing uptick in the upcoming slate of Primaries? Pul-leeze - this was an historic implosion.
Kerry's tired, but he'll rest up and rally now that he's got the "Big Joe." No amount of positive spin from Edwards will take away the fact that Kerry's set up for a massive increase in his fortunes both in terms of fundraising and general perceptions of electability. Clark has a few weeks left, tops; Lieberman's cluelessly out of touch; Kucinich is delightfully out of touch; Sharpton's nytroglycerine in a squirt bottle; Dean's postponing the inevitable. There will be so much more to dissect about this massive realignment in the weeks ahead. Whatever comes of this for Election 2004, I predict that more people are paying attention to politics this year than anyone has willingly quantified versus the stagnant turnout in so many, many elections past. And with David Kay's "we ain't got no WMDs" story becoming the sort of Beltway parlor game that may not go away for years, the die may be cast for a truly astonishing race that will be unlelenting until November.
At least that's the way it looks from here in the glorious winterscape of late January Vermont.
It's now Thursday morning, I'm back in VT and the entire world has changed for the Dean campaign. I've been terribly remiss (to give myself WAY too much credit) for not posting my thoughts in the last few days. But things have been in such flux that I hope you'll understand it took a bit to digest what's happened both right before and since the NH Primary. I'm done sitting on my haunches. I've got some ranting/rationalizing to do. And I hope if I'm read by anyone at all, they'll understand that I'm not happy to make the pronouncements I'm about to post on the Web.
Dean's over. Not entirely over as in dead, but definitively over as a candidate. I saw everyone in NH, including a creepily robotic Clark at a truckstop @ 6:30am on Monday and a dull Kerry in a rally in Keene in that early afternoon (more on that below). But the single most unimpressive performance was that I saw from Dean on last Thursday. Given how much positive press Dean got over the weekend, that sounds like an especially harsh snapshot, I realize. Still, I saw the writing on the wall well before the pundits noticed the mess in the last 24 hours. I'm hardly an insider and not one to offer any dirt other than a few choice observations. Yet if Dean's campaign was built by a grassroots commentary on politics as usual, I expect that many will give me credit for calling it straight as I've seen it unfold. In that light, I offer the following recap of the last few days.
Monday was all about momentum and "get out the vote" crapola. Calls were made by candidates and uninformed supporters alike, usually with the same degree of success. Clark chose to canvass NH's 10 counties in a crazed roadtrip that began in Lebanon at a truckstop with an oddly Wild West-themed motif, while the others played the equally calculated game of stump-speech rallies and massive ad buys. In the end, it certainly meant little. Almost every New Hampshirite I spoke with this month made it obvious that they would withhold declaring their intentions until they'd assessed just who might get elected in the grander scheme of the general Election in November. Using that looking glass, Kerry kicked everyone's butt thrice up and doubled down. Dean spent most of Monday decrying so-called "dirty tricks" - a defensive ploy that I could easily discredit based on something I saw at the Kerry rally in Keene, but I've chosen to let bygones be bygones. Regardless, the worst kept secret in the State came to fruition as Monday's last ditch efforts passed - the Democrats that showed up in record-breaking numbers wanted a winner and all the rest was so much lost body heat.
I spent an hour early on Primary Day at the counter in Lou's restaurant in Hanover, chatting with some locals and watching essentially even the most casual acquaintance remind one another to be sure and vote. Anyone that decries the "First in the Nation" status enjoyed by NH's Primary should spend a few minutes with these people - they take their job as citizens extremely seriously and no one can claim that the outcome is in any way rigged (another reason I completely refute the claim of sour grapes uttered by Dean far too repeatedly over the last 24 hours of campaigning there). Whatever happened was going to happen. Period. And that's where the whole world changed for a number of the campaigns.
Time for some rapid-fire pronouncements. Lieberman's well past well-done - he should have the humility to understand that his "split decision for third place" concession speech was the single most eggregious spin of the entire season thus far. Edwards is angling for the Veep, even if he won't admit it. Yet. Clark was a great marketing idea, but he's a lousy, lousy campaigner - you just don't learn these skills in a few months of work. Dean's the most erratic campaigner in the modern era, whose passion is nonetheless admirable and truly inspiring. But he's never lost a single political race and his reactions tow that line entirely. Kerry's a natural winner, just not one to inspire anyone beyond the previously allied or entirely rational voter. He'll be a tougher sell than door-to-door insurance over the long haul of this race unless the world collapses even further under Bush, which may well be the road we're stuck on. In short, the Democratic Party is dealing with the fact that its Minor League system has developed next to nil talent worth Big League contracts in the years since Clinton. That's the way it is when you look at the Sun, I suppose. You'll be blinded for a period of time, still focused on the brilliance you've just seen.
Amazingly, the day after the Primary turned out to be a bigger shock than the vote itself - the reports are swirling around the media this morning concerning Joe Trippi's departure from the Dean campaign. The speculation will carry through next Tuesday's Super 7 Primaries, at the very least. The one verdict that is indellible - the Dean campaign is coming apart at the seams. Roy Neel is probably a steady fellow, and Al Gore's friends surely get their phone calls taken by just about every media and political figure in the country. But the secondary effects will be huge. Dean can no longer rail against DC "special interests" - Neel ran a lobbying interest for the telecom industry since 1993 (he hasn't worked with a Presidential campaign since 1988 when he ran Gore's total tanker). Eveyone implies that Trippi quit on principle. The Deaniacs in cyberspace will be effectively vetoed in their influence (can anyone imagine Neel reading the often ridiculous hundreds of posts on Dean's blog like Trippi obviously did for hours on end?). But far, far more importantly - how can a campaign be so cavalier in wasting over $40M in small donations from those who've been drinking the Kool Aid for the past year as is now being ravenously reported? Can you imagine how many of the 500 staff who won't be paid for at least 2 weeks will either jump ship or subtlely look ahead to their exit strategies? The media is circling this debacle like a massive, cynically-brutal school of sharks, and this was supposed to be the week when the Dean campaign used the momentum gained from NH to propel it to a convincing uptick in the upcoming slate of Primaries? Pul-leeze - this was an historic implosion.
Kerry's tired, but he'll rest up and rally now that he's got the "Big Joe." No amount of positive spin from Edwards will take away the fact that Kerry's set up for a massive increase in his fortunes both in terms of fundraising and general perceptions of electability. Clark has a few weeks left, tops; Lieberman's cluelessly out of touch; Kucinich is delightfully out of touch; Sharpton's nytroglycerine in a squirt bottle; Dean's postponing the inevitable. There will be so much more to dissect about this massive realignment in the weeks ahead. Whatever comes of this for Election 2004, I predict that more people are paying attention to politics this year than anyone has willingly quantified versus the stagnant turnout in so many, many elections past. And with David Kay's "we ain't got no WMDs" story becoming the sort of Beltway parlor game that may not go away for years, the die may be cast for a truly astonishing race that will be unlelenting until November.
At least that's the way it looks from here in the glorious winterscape of late January Vermont.
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