Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
It was official over 12 hours ago - I just gave the results some time to sink in. Kerry and Edwards pulled off the Iowa upset few could have imagined even a week ago. Gephardt pulled out and gave a classy concession speech after finishing in 4th place. Dean looked insane while trying to rally the troops surely stunned by his 20 point loss to Kerry. And then the whole show hit the road for NH. Pundits high and low are trying their best to qualify why they were all so far afield from what actually happened at the Caucuses. My thoughts are as follows:
The touchstone of Democratic successes in elections past was "organization." The Deaniacs thought they found a new way to develop it and translate it into electoral success by harnassing the decentralized nature of Meetups, the web, blogs, and all manner of technological wonders in that vein. But when I watched the C-SPAN covered caucus sites last evening, a healthy majority of folks looked like the people I fondly remember growing up surrounded by in small-town Wisconsin - older, comfortably-unhip white people. These people certainly are less swayed by an impressive website than a war hero's tearful reunion with a soldier whose life he'd saved 35 years ago or an upbeat speech by a nice young man with a glorious smile. The bigger surprise to me in terms of organization though is the obvious blow that the Unions must take to heart after their efforts fell flat. So then to contrast, what are the positives behind Kerry and Edwards' vault to the top? Maybe being articulate still means a bunch, even in the Bush era. Momentum can still be earned very quickly. And there's no longer such a thing as a pre-ordained favorite in this particular year's race. This all really leads to one important grandiose statement - Bush is entirely beatable. Some might find that a large leap of logic. It may well be. But in the days and weeks ahead I'll do my best to explain why I think it is entirely the truth of Election 2004.
It was official over 12 hours ago - I just gave the results some time to sink in. Kerry and Edwards pulled off the Iowa upset few could have imagined even a week ago. Gephardt pulled out and gave a classy concession speech after finishing in 4th place. Dean looked insane while trying to rally the troops surely stunned by his 20 point loss to Kerry. And then the whole show hit the road for NH. Pundits high and low are trying their best to qualify why they were all so far afield from what actually happened at the Caucuses. My thoughts are as follows:
The touchstone of Democratic successes in elections past was "organization." The Deaniacs thought they found a new way to develop it and translate it into electoral success by harnassing the decentralized nature of Meetups, the web, blogs, and all manner of technological wonders in that vein. But when I watched the C-SPAN covered caucus sites last evening, a healthy majority of folks looked like the people I fondly remember growing up surrounded by in small-town Wisconsin - older, comfortably-unhip white people. These people certainly are less swayed by an impressive website than a war hero's tearful reunion with a soldier whose life he'd saved 35 years ago or an upbeat speech by a nice young man with a glorious smile. The bigger surprise to me in terms of organization though is the obvious blow that the Unions must take to heart after their efforts fell flat. So then to contrast, what are the positives behind Kerry and Edwards' vault to the top? Maybe being articulate still means a bunch, even in the Bush era. Momentum can still be earned very quickly. And there's no longer such a thing as a pre-ordained favorite in this particular year's race. This all really leads to one important grandiose statement - Bush is entirely beatable. Some might find that a large leap of logic. It may well be. But in the days and weeks ahead I'll do my best to explain why I think it is entirely the truth of Election 2004.
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